Erik: Anything is possible. That’s not the standard. Balls don’t bounce in thick rough and return to their own divots. Is it possible? I suppose so. Is it reasonably certain, more likely than not, beyond a reasonable doubt? No.
I'm not sure what your point is here. Patrick didn't see the ball bounce or not bounce. He got to the area, thought his ball might be embedded, nobody else said much of anything, he called a RO over, and and the RO gave a ruling. He took relief and won the event.
You seem to have missed that they don't have to "return to their own divot." A ball can make a pitch mark on the first, second, third… bounce. I've seen it happen and have ruled and given relief on second bounce pitch marks/embedded balls. That's the Rule.
Reminds me of an argument I had with a friend. A competitor in a tournament posted a one round net score of -13. The USGA says the chances of that happening are around 25,000/1. I say the competitor should be dq’d. My friend argued that, because it was possible, disqualification wasn’t warranted. I asked him if he would acquit a murder defendant if the chance that the blood found at the scene was not the defendant’s was 25,000/1. He said he would convict. So his standard to impose the death penalty was lower than to disqualify a golfer. This idea that you have to give the golfer the benefit of the doubt requires some common sense.
Unless the tournament had established criteria like "10,000:1 odds or higher will be disqualified," or someone has legitimate proof that the guy cheated, then I don't see how you could really DQ him from that event. But, that's one of the many reasons also not to concern yourself too much with net events.
That type of thing also has almost nothing to do with the embedded ball stuff.
I was a rules official in an important local tournament involved in a similar situation. A good player found his drive in a depression in broken ground in the rough. He asserted that it was an embedded ball. I told him that I had seen it bounce twice and asked him to reconsider. Then I suggested that he "play hard." End of story. It gets harder when no one sees the ball land. However, the rule is clear.
You should re-read the rule. Balls can embed in their own pitch marks on second or third bounces:
As for Nick’s statement about never seeing a ball plug on the second bounce, he is full of it as I’ve seen it plenty of times.
I specifically asked about this at one rules school (it may have even been one with JohnVDB), and it's been brought up specifically at two others after Patrick Reed's thing at Torrey.