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Jason Topp

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #25 on: September 01, 2023, 01:19:31 PM »
The diffrence in average score among all these players is likely around a stroke, two at most.   This course looks like a goofy outlier similar to the one they played in France other than that it is set on very hilly terrain.  Europe's top few players are probably as good or better than the top Americans.


I would take Europe in a straight up bet but will not be surprised regardless of the outcome.

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +1/-1
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #26 on: September 01, 2023, 06:23:57 PM »

The over/under on the number of points JT picks up at the Ryder Cup:  1 1/2.  And it's only that high because someone might bail him out in the better ball matches.

I'd take that bet.. I need to win back those Pro V1s I lost on the Rio bet..  :)




I'm the house, I just set the line.  David Wuthrich wants the under, so you and he should decide how much to wager.  And if JT gets exactly 1 1/2 points, you can both pay the house.  8)

jeffwarne

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #27 on: September 01, 2023, 06:46:10 PM »
I like the JT pick.
The "Task Force" forced Team USA to go to 6 Captain's picks, which I personally think is ludicrous.

But that is where they are, and reaching up a few spots to 15 out of the Top 12 isn't that much of a stretch, especially for a guy with a clear winning match play record, not just in President's Cups, but also in Ryder Cups, where nearly every other American has a losing record. 16-5-3 overall and 6-2-1 in RC speaks volumes to me-especially given how terrible other team USA recent records are.
At least this Captain picked a guy with a winning record for "experience", rather than one with only losing "experience", as past Captains did(and for that matter a past repeat Captain who was picked AFTER losing one already).


Also, if you're going with Spieth, you gotta pick JT, as they are a formidable team.


I also like the Glover pick-would've liked to have seen his epic stretch run rewarded.


I leave off Fowler and take Glover.
Fowler has been around losing way too long on RC's, wasn't on the WS winning team and has a 3-7-5 record.
Part of an era the USA needs to put behind them.
But I love him as a player and person, just needs to earn his way on-I hope he does.


I also take Keegan over Burns, just based on '23 form and final RC standings but could go either way on this one.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2023, 07:19:18 PM by jeffwarne »
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

jeffwarne

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #28 on: September 01, 2023, 06:57:33 PM »



To me, one of the most interesting aspects of the Ryder Cup is that it's the only time you see guys who aren't playing well trying to grind it out under pressure.  Usually, when they are playing badly, the pros are at home by Friday night -- or at least they're not on TV, because they aren't in contention.  But in the Ryder Cup there are nearly always 3-4 guys who aren't playing well, and have no place to hide.


The over/under on the number of points JT picks up at the Ryder Cup:  1 1/2.  And it's only that high because someone might bail him out in the better ball matches.


Point #1 is very true.
that's where match play winning experience is important.
Who can beat the guy in front of them in what might be a pillow fight.
Stroke play allocates the TV time and spotlight to those in high control of their ball.
Pre picked teams in match play? Who knows who will go in with their best physical stuff-some know how to dig deep anyway.


That is the total fallacy of qualifying on a stroke play event basis.
If using stroke play, at least look to see how a player does when he has a chance to win, and throw out the back door high finishes.
I love Cam Young,who is a great player, and hopefully a multi time Tour and major winner, but I wouldn't pick him this year because(so far) he's failed the spotlight close the deal on Sunday test(see Fowler), which is exactly what match play is.


As far as 1.5 for JT, I'll take the over.
Hopefully Zac lets him play rather than dialing up the pressure with a conditional appearance.
Live with your pick, and give him the best chance for success.
Just like a cold shooter-tell him to keep shooting and that you believe in him.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2023, 07:17:38 PM by jeffwarne »
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

Mark Pritchett

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #29 on: September 02, 2023, 02:42:25 PM »
ďI know no way of judging the future but by the past.Ē -Patrick Henry
« Last Edit: September 05, 2023, 02:09:17 PM by Mark Pritchett »

Mike_Young

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #30 on: September 02, 2023, 05:19:07 PM »
I'm a cynic when it comes to the PGA of America.  Larry Nelson was the biggest Captain snub ever.  When he was being discussed, I recall a couple (or more) tour members discussing "captain's picks" as well as Captains and how often it relates to revenue as it pertains to PGA of America.  Often guys that don't have big clothing endorsements etc are at a disadvantage.  I think often Polo, Millar etc have more influence in picks than we think.  JMO
"just standing on a corner in Winslow Arizona"

Erik J. Barzeski

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #31 on: September 04, 2023, 07:45:51 PM »
I leave off Fowler and take Glover.
https://datagolf.com/player-profiles?dg_id=12965
https://datagolf.com/player-profiles?dg_id=7399


DataGolf has Lucas ranked 41st and Rickie 14th. He's playing better golf.


I also take Keegan over Burns, just based on '23 form and final RC standings but could go either way on this one.
Burns is Scottie's pick.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I ignore Rob and Tim.

Jason Topp

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #32 on: September 05, 2023, 12:33:20 PM »
I leave off Fowler and take Glover.
https://datagolf.com/player-profiles?dg_id=12965
https://datagolf.com/player-profiles?dg_id=7399


DataGolf has Lucas ranked 41st and Rickie 14th. He's playing better golf.
.


Erik - how does course fit apply to such an analysis?  Glover looks perfect based on his driving accuracy and iron play.  To me, if his recent putting performance is permanent improvement rather than random fluctuation, he seems like a better pick based on the data.  If it is fluctuation, Fowler definitely has a longer-term track record and a better overall record.


Nonetheless, to me this is a team and not an all star team. The best team does not necessarily consist of the best players.

Carl Rogers

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #33 on: September 05, 2023, 01:11:24 PM »
Suggestions:
1. Have only 2 captains picks, 10 spots by points
2. Points allocation should emphisze the second half of the season leading up to the event
I decline to accept the end of man. ... William Faulkner

Charlie Goerges

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #34 on: September 05, 2023, 01:29:38 PM »
Suggestions:
1. Have only 2 captains picks, 10 spots by points
2. Points allocation should emphisze the second half of the season leading up to the event




It's funny because point 1 is exactly how it used to be, but it caused problems as well. Point 2 was sort of true in that I think it might have weighted the cup year slightly heavier than the off year (but I might be mistaken about that).


I've totally forgotten what the precipitating occurrence was that caused the shift from 2 to 6 captain's picks, anyone else remember?
Severally on the occasion of everything that thou doest, pause and ask thyself, if death is a dreadful thing because it deprives thee of this. - Marcus Aurelius

mike_malone

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #35 on: September 05, 2023, 03:24:35 PM »
If JT is a marginal pick shouldnít he be compared to the last players chosen on the Euro side like Macintyre and Hojgaard. Iím not intimidated.
AKA Mayday

Rob Marshall

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Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #36 on: September 05, 2023, 03:37:52 PM »
If JT is a marginal pick shouldnít he be compared to the last players chosen on the Euro side like Macintyre and Hojgaard. Iím not intimidated.


Wasn't Macintyre a qualifier on points not a pick?
If life gives you limes, make margaritas.Ē Jimmy Buffett

mike_malone

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #37 on: September 05, 2023, 03:47:54 PM »
I just looked at the list and picked two so thanks for clarification. Iím still not intimidated by those two versus JT.


I checked the World Rankings. JT 26, Mac in 50ís and Hojgaard in 80ís. Iím not saying JT is better. Iím saying he should be compared to them not to , letís say, Rose or Fleetwood.




Plus do we think that JT and Speith will be an important team as in the past? I think not.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2023, 03:58:26 PM by mike_malone »
AKA Mayday

John Emerson

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #38 on: September 05, 2023, 08:50:34 PM »
Sorry wrong thread
ďThereís links golf, then everything else.Ē

Sean_A

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #39 on: September 06, 2023, 03:15:45 AM »
I like the 6 picks. It makes being Captain important. Something I long thought should be the case. I wouldn't mind 12 picks.

Ciao
New plays planned for 2023: Clyne

David Cronan

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results
« Reply #40 on: September 17, 2023, 08:34:15 AM »
Apparently the reports of JTís demise were premature, as heís presently T2 in an, admittedly, less than deep field event.


Is the over/under of 1.5 still being offered?

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