[thomaslaffont]

I was surprised to read that players choosing to go for the green on the 10th at Riviera are a cumulative 481 UNDER par since 2003 versus 31 OVER par for players who choose to lay up. This is partially explained by the fact that 10 green is by far the hardest green to hit from 75 yards in on the PGA Tour (59% versus the next hole on the list Pebble's 14th at 71%).

This lead me to wonder whether we should judge a strategic hole on the relative outcomes of its different options. Would we consider a hole flawed if it overwhelmingly favored one of its options versus the other? Should the opportunity to make par be more equally weighted for a strategic hole to be successful? Or is the ultimate test, a design's ability to lure the player into an option that might not favor the score but rather the thrill of the shot, i.e. the 16th at Cypress Point?

[Mark_Fine]

Temptation is one of the attributes of most all great golf holes 

[Jim Hoak]

I don't know in many cases what "going for it" means?  I watched a good deal--but not all of the tournament--and I never saw anyone actually stay on the green with their tee shot.  The best I saw was a ball landing on the green (Cantlay) and ending up down the left slope 30 yards away.
I still believe it is probably a good hole--fun to watch--interesting.  Good short par-4's are some of the best holes in golf.
Maybe it would be better if it returned to the Thomas design, the front left bunker was removed, and either the slopes of the green were softened or the green speed was reduced.
But it adds something to the tournament the way it is.
Having only played Riviera one time, I don't know how it plays for the typical amateur.  How does a 12-handicap play the hole and how do most do?  Is the strategic option dilemma true for them too?

[Mark_Fine]

First of all, I wouldn't judge the merits of a "strategic hole" like #10 at Riviera just by how the pros play it.  99% of golfers who play that hole (even from the regular tee markers) can't drive that green.  They can "go for it" but they won't get there.  As such, what those 99% are doing (or should be doing if they are capable) with their club selection off the tee is trying to decide what angle and distance they want to have in for their second shot.  I also realize most are probably just grabbing a driver and trying to hit it as hard as they can and worry about the next shot when they get to the ball    I have played the hole a handful of times and it does create temptation even if you can't hit it 300 yards.  I love it. 

[Jim Hoak]

Mark, your post raises an issue that bothers me regarding a lot of posts on GCA:  When we discuss holes and strategy, are we talking about the .001% of golfers that play golf for a living on the Tours?  Or are we talking about the amateurs who make up most golfers?  And if we are talking about amateurs, are we looking at Scratch players or 18 handicaps?   There is a big difference in the games of golfers.  And analysis needs to clearly identify which group we are talking about.

[Jason Topp]

Mark, your post raises an issue that bothers me regarding a lot of posts on GCA:  When we discuss holes and strategy, are we talking about the .001% of golfers that play golf for a living on the Tours?  Or are we talking about the amateurs who make up most golfers?  And if we are talking about amateurs, are we looking at Scratch players or 18 handicaps?   There is a big difference in the games of golfers.  And analysis needs to clearly identify which group we are talking about.

Jim:  To my mind, a well-designed golf hole creates interesting strategic decisions for each of those categories of golfer.

[Jim Hoak]

Jason--The same strategic decision for all categories?  Or different, but still interesting, for each category?  Isn't the latter nearly impossible?  And the former just a dream?

[Mark_Fine]

Guys,
The Pros play a different game than the rest of us.  My handicap is close to scratch and I am not even in the same ballpark of how they play the game from a distance standpoint.  When we, for example, talk "drivable" par fours on this site, we are mainly talking about drivable for Pros unless the hole is very very short (250 yards or so) as 99% of golfers don't hit it farther than that.  Most of the pros didn't even need driver to reach #10 at Riviera.  Heck Bubba hit is drive 350 yards "up hill" on #17 
Mark

[Kalen Braley]

Mark,


As much as I hate to disagree, I don't think double digit handicappers are universally that short.  I've played with several double digit cappers who could regularly get it out there 280...making a 300 hole in the realm of reachable.


Its just the lack of consistency that separates them from you....

[Mark_Fine]

Kalen,
There are players who are 25 handicappers that can hit it 300 yards, I agree.  But we are talking percentages here and it is a very small percentage who hit it that far.  I will concede my 99% down to 97%     Regardless of what the actual percentage is, it is a very small number that would consider a hole like #10 at Riviera "drivable" even off the regular tees which I believe are about 290 yards on the score card.  If I remember correctly, slope ratings for example assume the longest a bogie golfer can hit the ball is 220 yards.  220 yards is a very good drive for even many single digit handicappers.  Google driving distance stats and you will see where I am coming from. 
Mark

[Kalen Braley]

Mark,


Its all good.  I'm certainly in the majority category...on my best days I'm only 250 off the tee.... 


P.S.  I've also played with several single digits, and not a single one was short of 250 off the tee consistently...and most were in the 280+ range.  Maybe I shoulda become friends with Corey Pavin! 

[Jim Hoak]

Separate carry from distance with roll.  If you're playing on very fast fairways, maybe 280 is in the cards for a few.  But Mark is right, the average driving distance for most amateurs is at most 220-230 carry.

[Mark_Fine]

Karen,
Many single digit handicappers can move it out there but the percentages are very low.  If you hit the ball 250 yards off the tee you are hitting it very far relatively speaking, easily in the top 10% of all golfers.  If I am honest with myself, I average in the 240-250 yard carry range and after that the roll I get depends on the firmness of the turf.  I can get it out there further but that requires the perfect strike.  A hole like Riviera #10 tempts someone like me to make that career drive to the front edge of the green.  Most times, however, I will likely end up in the awkward 20-50 yard range with the need to flop something over that front bunker to a very small target.  Not ideal which is why a smarter play is to leave a full shot where I can get some spin.  But this is why the hole is great because it is so short that it plays on one's ego and confuses better judgment.  Even for the golfer who knows they can't reach (which is most) they have a hard time not giving it a go 😊

[Mark_Fine]

Jim,
The average carry is less then that.   
Mark

[Kalen Braley]

I would agree when it comes to carry....but that's different.  On tour they don't measure drives by carry, they measure them after rollout.


 So I'll restate...on my best days, I get my drives to roll out to 240-250...average is 210-220...

[Matt_Cohn]

I was surprised to read that players choosing to go for the green on the 10th at Riviera are a cumulative 481 UNDER par since 2003 versus 31 OVER par for players who choose to lay up.

It's not a useful statistic as the going for it vs. laying up groups are not randomly assigned.


It's possible both groups would do worse (or better) if they chose the other option.

[Carl Rogers]

Riviera 10 question:. Can the 12 .handicapper hit the green from 90 yards?
Seems like low percentage shot.

[Jeff Schley]

Riviera 10 question:. Can the 12 .handicapper hit the green from 90 yards?
Seems like low percentage shot.

Doubtful unless they are just aiming at the front left part of the green to avoid Mr. Sandman.  If the drive is far enough left to avoid having to carry the bunkers on the approach they have a better chance.  However, that is a tough drive to aim over the first bunker and stop it before the second fairway bunker on the left.  I respect the difficulty.  The members play this 275 approx.

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