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George Pazin

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #50 on: October 10, 2016, 04:29:59 PM »
Anyone making claims about how a company spends money should be obligated to start a competitor and prove that company is foolish...
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

Ryan Hillenbrand

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #51 on: October 10, 2016, 05:01:52 PM »
I suspect Tom is right about real growth and confusing the rising stock market with growth. Having just returned from Florida I see that real estate prices are rising and lots of new developments are going up. But I suspect these are the boomers who missed their chance before the last meltdown and aren't going to make the same mistake again. They're cashing out and buying their retirement home or 2nd or 3rd.

I'd love to see a model where you had 1000 members paying $2000 year, and for that you got 1 set tee time each week. Beyond that it would be walk ons only. That would prevent the cheapskates from over running the place. A really good practice area, and a clubhouse the size of the Dunes Club. Walking only.

John Kirk

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #52 on: October 10, 2016, 05:48:48 PM »
I'm not saying that Callaway is foolish.  I'm saying the market for $47 per dozen golf balls, $400 drivers and $1000 sets of irons may contract, because fewer people will be able to afford them.

In the opening post, Jason Thurman said that Costco is selling golf balls at $30 for two dozen.

Thanks for twisting the intent of my post.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2016, 06:03:56 PM by John Kirk »

John Kavanaugh

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #53 on: October 10, 2016, 07:00:51 PM »
Far too many people who don't pay to play golf complaining about the financial model on which golf is based.

Jaeger Kovich

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #54 on: October 10, 2016, 07:51:26 PM »
Kyle - Kinda funny you mention the dress code stuff. Couldn't agree more. As an example: Just about everyone I know in the golf industry has gone to some variation of the street/golf shoes. For me, and many of them the best part is not having to deal with the locker room. I don't have to worry about offending people by letting them see my socks in the parking lot, I can just grab the sticks, head straight to the tee from the car and go. Talk about speeding up the experience and appearing to us Golf Hipsters 8) .


As for some of that other stuff, you should look way more broad than the tats. We both know some extremely talented women that get judged in similar ways. It always pained me see/know how much harder so many things could be because of gender. I always thought it was pretty cool that 2 of the best architects saw past that when so many don't.


I do think people need to be more open about letting other people enjoy golf the way they want to enjoy golf. I don't know when we all turned into Judge Smails, and got so offended by other people having fun. Sure there is a respect of the game, and other people, but RELAX! If Tiger is wearing shorts instead of pants next summer when he sinks the putt to win the US OPEN I really don't think golf is gonna die, do you?!


... I think we are watching baseball struggle with the same thing right now. See Bryce Harper and all the guys flipping bats. Do you think the Yankees will sell out on Bryce's beard/hair, or will he cut it for the biggest pay day? 

Sean_A

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #55 on: October 10, 2016, 07:56:41 PM »
Far too many people who don't pay to play golf complaining about the financial model on which golf is based.

....for a very small number of people.  Let us not forget that private golf is not the real picture of golf in the US. 

Kyle...dress "codes" for the work place have long been heading toward the casual look...started well before your working days.  Things happen, maybe not at the pace you want, but they will continue to happen.  I think you grossly over-estimate your thesis.  Don't judge dres standards by privates ad what you see on tv...it ain't the real world.  Before you retort...I don't give a rats ass how folks dress, its up to them.  That said, in some circles it matters, so if you want a piece of the pie dress for desert...its a small sacrifice in the  big scheme of things. 

I am mildly shocked that people continue to pay $250 for drivers and putters, $45+ for golf balls, $125 for a golf top and $400 for a rain suit.  Golfers are a strange lot who are easily led.  That said, for every golfer willing to do the above, there are nine who aren't.  Its amazing these golf supply and distrubution companies stay in business.  Like John states, I full expect further contraction in the market.  I also don't expect any substantial increase in golf course construction.   

Pietro

I agree, unless there is something compelling about the course, or the membership or the deal, then $2200 for membership sounds high.  At some point, these public offering memberships will figure out that they need to set aside prime tee time slots for members only and start creating member events.  That means, they can't chase top dollar in high season, the tradeoff is getting guaranteed year round income.  The typical "membership" deal at public ourses is pay upfront, get very little in the way member tee times and a system where members still fight for tee times.  The yearly dues would have to be very cheap for me to have interest in this sort of thing because its nothing like a real membership if tee times and member events aren't reserved and organized. 

Ciao

   
« Last Edit: October 10, 2016, 07:59:51 PM by Sean_A »
New plays planned for 2024: Fraserburgh, Hankley Common, Ashridge, Gog Magog Old & Cruden Bay St Olaf

John Kavanaugh

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #56 on: October 10, 2016, 08:10:42 PM »
Maybe we should all take a minute and go back and read the first post of the Your Last Ten thread. It was intended to show the "real" courses we play on a regular basis and not be the bragadouchio thread it became. There is perfect golf for every socioeconomic demographic in this country. Just find it, accept it and love it and you will be as happy as any other golfer across any fence.


There is nothing wrong with golf that we couldn't fix by getting over ourselves.

Terry Lavin

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #57 on: October 10, 2016, 09:01:10 PM »
"Bragadouchiou" is one of my favorite terms coined here. It's a great game. If you get to play great courses and have the ability to understand why they're great, that should be enough, with or without the Kirkland accoutrements. Let's just play courses and TRY to understand what the pro architects are trying to do.

That's my business model and I've met dozens of great people in the process. The game is fine, "Thou shalt not whine" is my Eleventh Commandment.
Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.  H.L. Mencken

Mike Sweeney

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #58 on: October 10, 2016, 09:40:06 PM »


Costco has just released a Kirkland brand urethane four-piece golf ball at a price point of ~$30 for 2 dozen. Reviews from GolfWRX are very positive, and the guys on GolfWRX know balls.


I have been playing Snell for about a year now as I am a small business guy. I ordered the Kirkland's to try them. Thanks
"One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us."

Dr. Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark

Joe Sponcia

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #59 on: October 10, 2016, 09:49:26 PM »

I was told that dress codes and similar standards of conduct are how you show respect to the game.


You were told right.  It's shows how much GCA.com has gone down hill.  One doesn't have to have money to dress like they care.  Demise of culture.


Ben,


Funny you say that (and I agree)...churches are going through the same thing right now.  And no, I don't even want to talk about religion (and will refrain from it if this point somehow grows legs), but the point is, they are dropping their 'standards' to attract a transient group that only cares about themselves - oh wait, there is a parallel.   


Part of what I still love about the game besides cool architecture and actually playing the game are the traditions the game holds onto at clubs.  It seems like one of the few places that doesn't bow down to "do whatever, we need your money". 


Jason, I just feel like at least in my area, the game is overbuilt both private and public.  The public places that should have close are STILL in business.  The private clubs have dropped maintenance, fees, dress codes, etc. and they for the most part are suffering.  Most of the guys I play with are 15-20 years older than me & I love their companionship and company, but we aren't backfilling with new folks.  I'm doing my part - my son plays, but who knows if he'll keep playing?  Good post.
Joe

https://pillarsofgolf.wordpress.com

"If the hole is well designed, a fairway can't be too wide". - Mike Nuzzo

David_Tepper

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #60 on: October 10, 2016, 10:34:18 PM »
The Kirkland golf balls are made by Nassau Golf Co. of South Korea:

http://thegolfnewsnet.com/golfnewsnetteam/2016/10/08/costco-kirkland-signature-golf-balls-99678/
« Last Edit: October 11, 2016, 05:26:33 PM by David_Tepper »

Jason Thurman

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #61 on: October 11, 2016, 09:50:50 AM »

I don't think golf needs to abandon expectations of decorum, etiquette, and attire. Golf clothing has changed dramatically even in just the short time I've been playing. I'm just old enough to remember the sound of real spikes on the pavement on the way in to the clubhouse and deca-pleated pants. When I started to play regularly in my late teens, I think just about everyone was wearing cotton, and some were probably even wearing wool. We just accepted that smelling like ass and feeling disgusting was part of the game. I still remember seeing a random college tournament maybe 12 years ago and seeing "athletic" golf shoes for the first time, and thinking they were hideous. Ten years later, I watched Mr. Decline of Decency himself, Ben Cowan, tee off while wearing a pair of white TW '13s. I was wearing them too. Expectations for decorum, etiquette, and attire will continue to change gradually, but as long as norms continue to exist, the culture of the game will be just fine. At the same time, Kyle's point that an industry will struggle to attract innovative minds if it discriminates against the cultural norms of modern society is a good one. Thinking briefly through the innovators of the last 15 years, it's hard not to think of guys ranging from business casual Elon Musk to the jeans and white shoes of Steve Jobs to the hoodies of Mark Zuckerberg (and Bill Belichick for that matter, who would never be mistaken for Hank Stram). Transportation has Uber, music has iTunes, tourism has AirBnB, and the golf industry has GolfNow. The real price golf will pay for being dorky and stuffy is the opportunity cost that comes from being ignored by people with game-changing ideas who would rather work at something cool.


The discussion of attire and decorum and all that other stuff isn't really what I want to get into, though. I'm still much more interested in how the game's playing fields can, should, and/or actually will evolve over the next few decades, and what that evolution will mean for the game's long-term health. I'm not even really interested in the golf industry - I have no stake in golf being a lucrative business. But I do have a stake in knowing the game will find an economic balance that assures it has a future and doesn't simply disappear.


I think it's pretty obvious that if golf hadn't been conceived of prior to today, that golf would not be invented in the future - at least not in its current form. A game that requires about 200 acres of maintained landscaping and takes 4 hours to play if you're lucky would not be invented in 2016. The fact that golf would never get off the ground if it was only now being conceived of does not mean that golf can't thrive in the future, but it does mean that the game has some serious threats to its long-term health. I guess I really just wonder if there's anything architecturally that can be done to mitigate those threats, and what systematic shifts in the way that golfers think about the game are plausible and could drive those architectural changes to improve the game's place within society, even if they don't fix the golf "business." The Kirkland golf ball interests me, because it's really just a harbinger of further future changes in the equipment market. Equipment manufacturers will see their profit margins decline after the graphite/carbon/titanium/MOI/COR/urethane-covered-four-piece bubble of the last 15 years now that equipment performance is regulated to a point of essentially being maxed out. As R&D's role is reduced, cost of concept and production will go down and eventually manufacturers will start undercutting their competitors until a new quality equipment price point established. It'll be painful - manufacturing companies will go out of business or be acquired, jobs will be eliminated, and executives will make less money. But the outcome will be a much more sustainable market.


As we can look back and see that the equipment industry was building a bubble that would eat itself, we also know that a construction bubble for golf in the economic boom of the '90s led to the proliferation of courses that were too long, too expensive to maintain, and too expensive (and slow) to play. We know that golf won't survive if maintenance costs don't stabilize or decrease, and we know the game can't survive if it gets much more expensive for players. We also know that golf courses worth a couple million dollars will eventually succumb if the massive amount of land they sit on is worth 10+ million for other purposes. And yet, we also know that golfers will continue to demand excellent conditioning and an experience that feels high-end. So how will the game adjust to these realities? Or will it fail to adjust and slowly disappear? I'm sure that the answer to the second question is yes, but I'd love to be convinced otherwise.


In the meantime, I need to confirm my foursome at Topgolf tomorrow.
"There will always be haters. That’s just the way it is. Hating dudes marry hating women and have hating ass kids." - Evan Turner

Some of y'all have never been called out in bold green font and it really shows.

JESII

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #62 on: October 11, 2016, 10:02:41 AM »
Here's the thing...golf is 100% local.


I know that's a saying from the world of politics but it's absolutely true.


There is a really nice course about 2 miles from my home that fulfills every possible need for every possible golfer...and it costs a couple thousand dollars a year to join, or $50 to play as a call in.


I enjoy but don't need a new Doak/Coore/Hanse course to make my golf life better any more than I need a new driver that will add another 20 yards to my game...


Your assumptions around maintenance and time are, again, personal opinions and do not speak to the underlying core health of the game of golf. I think Tom Doak said it in a few words...you're reacting to slowing growth and treating it as a decline.




If there were half as many equipment companies selling a third of the overall business they did 5 years ago and there were 60% of the total golf courses in the US but all were fully booked would you consider the game healthy?


The game isn't dying around here...




Thomas Dai

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #63 on: October 11, 2016, 10:12:16 AM »
Folks are living longer and there arn't that many physical pastimes that your body will permit you to play in later years. Golf is one. And the pleasure of introducing your children/grandchildren etc to the game is beneficial as well.
Atb
« Last Edit: October 11, 2016, 10:13:54 AM by Thomas Dai »

Sean_A

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #64 on: October 11, 2016, 10:22:22 AM »
Jim


I don't think the game is dying either. The golf industry is currently on a diet and is shedding excess fat. People seem to treat golf like financial markets, as if it has unlimited capacity to grow.  In reality its not true in either case and even if it were true, in neither case is there anywhere near sufficient sustainable capacity to underpin that sort of growth.   


Ciao 
New plays planned for 2024: Fraserburgh, Hankley Common, Ashridge, Gog Magog Old & Cruden Bay St Olaf

BCowan

Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #65 on: October 11, 2016, 10:23:47 AM »
Jason the smartest guy in the room just doesn't get it.  30 years ago there were a lot less public courses.  Those public courses usually allow maint and cart boys playing privelges daily replacing the decline in caddy programs introduction arguement.  Jason has hang ups with trolleys and golf sneaker shoes yet plays the he's for the poor downtrodden the next minute. Text book lunatic.

   Just because public golf sucKS in toledo and cinci doesn't represent the whole.  Indy, cleveland, and grand Rapids have great public golf.

Muskegon cc and south Bend cc were purchased by members are doing great now.  The key is to be a leader like Peter suggested we don't have leadership these days. Just people opining with no real world golf experience.  Then jason economics outlook is that of the average American, clueless.

Golf doesn't need innovatio. It needs to go back to its Scottish roots as Mr Maxwell lamented we pay 10 times more for golf and are in the red over here.  That is conservative, going back to ones roots.  It happens over and over here not learning from history.  The one thing Jason got right is that u aren't going to change private clubs from idiocy.  The best u can hope for is that a member (s) with money and common sense buy it when it's up for sale.  Obviously not ones in new burb areas with zero down house investments like in north indy where I was yesterday

Jason Thurman

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #66 on: October 11, 2016, 10:49:41 AM »
Jim, I'm not treating slowing growth as a decline, and your suggesting of such is just blatantly incorrect. Slowing growth is what we had in the early aughts, when rounds played were increasing but more slowly than they had in the 90s. It's a simple fact, though, that participation fell from over 30 million in 2004 to under 25 million in 2014. That's a decline. In every year since 2004, more courses have closed than have opened. That's a decline. Rounds played fell every single year from 2004 until 2014. That's a decline. These are just facts.


There is a certain ilk that believes this is all just a temporary market correction from the overbuilding of courses as part of the real estate boom, and I'd love for that to be correct. It's certainly something worth debating. And I think I've been very clear that I don't care even a little bit about whether the game "grows." I do care about whether it finds a balance at some point in the future that allows it to stabilize and sustain, and I don't think it will without fundamental changes to the cost of maintenance, cost to play, time to play, and value of land relative to the value of courses. I'd love to hear reasons why I could be wrong about those things even. But if you want to pretend a clear and measurable decline is really just a "slowing of growth," and if you're going to cite a guy who earlier claimed "growth itself is dying," then you're just plain wrong, as is Tom when he claims economic growth no longer exists. The guy's a great golf course architect, but maybe not the best source for economic data. Check out the 1, 3, 5, and 10 year growth of sectors and industries here: https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/sectors/si_performance.jhtml?tab=siperformance. Oddly enough, George Pazin earlier in this thread tried to claim that the only area of the economy I might have been right about when I claimed that there were plenty of growing sectors in the economy is the financial sector. In fact, it's the only sector that HASN'T made gains in the last ten years, not that anyone should let facts get in the way of good old-fashioned disenfranchisement.
"There will always be haters. That’s just the way it is. Hating dudes marry hating women and have hating ass kids." - Evan Turner

Some of y'all have never been called out in bold green font and it really shows.

Sean_A

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #67 on: October 11, 2016, 10:58:21 AM »
Jason


I think Tom and Jim are claiming foul in comparing golf stats/markets today to the go go days of yesteryear because those levels were never realistically sustainable...false growth if you will...based on a false growth of the market.  Nothing grew really we simply borrowed from the future.


Ciao
New plays planned for 2024: Fraserburgh, Hankley Common, Ashridge, Gog Magog Old & Cruden Bay St Olaf

Jason Thurman

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #68 on: October 11, 2016, 11:09:46 AM »
Sean, that's fair and I'd love to discuss it further if someone constructed a rational argument, but there's been no rational argument offered in this thread for the idea that this decline will eventually end without a few fundamental changes to the game itself. So far, the arguments offered have instead been a denial that a decline in golf is happening at all (false), and denial that any kind of industry growth is even possible anymore (false, but hats off to anyone who can keep a straight face while throwing that one at the wall).
« Last Edit: October 11, 2016, 11:14:28 AM by Jason Thurman »
"There will always be haters. That’s just the way it is. Hating dudes marry hating women and have hating ass kids." - Evan Turner

Some of y'all have never been called out in bold green font and it really shows.

Sean_A

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #69 on: October 11, 2016, 11:30:51 AM »
Jason


If you want rational arguments, don't talk about the economy...which is what the golf industry is most effected by. We know markets are not rational, because people are often not rational.  Models of the economy have a very difficult time predicting the behaviour of people and governments.  Who knew Russia would default on loans? Who knew the Chinese govt would sell golf down the river? If I could predict that sort of stuff with minimal risk exposure I wouldn't be typing this right now.   


Ciao
New plays planned for 2024: Fraserburgh, Hankley Common, Ashridge, Gog Magog Old & Cruden Bay St Olaf

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #70 on: October 11, 2016, 11:31:26 AM »
Jason,


How blinded by reality are you by the recent closing of a course that you loved?

Ryan Hillenbrand

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #71 on: October 11, 2016, 11:50:44 AM »
Maybe Costco can start rolling out Kirkland golf courses too, kind of like the old Sears Roebucks house in a box. Wonder what they would look like?

Ironically when I think of Millenial attire I see them as more formal, not less. Well manicured beards, skinny suits that look like they came from Ann Taylor, and wingtips. While I'm walking around in Dockers and St. Johns Bay shirts.

Joe Sponcia

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Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #72 on: October 11, 2016, 02:18:44 PM »
I do care about whether it finds a balance at some point in the future that allows it to stabilize and sustain, and I don't think it will without fundamental changes to the cost of maintenance, cost to play, time to play, and value of land relative to the value of courses. I'd love to hear reasons why I could be wrong about those things even.



Jason,

 
  • Cost of maintenance goes up every time we insist on 7500 tees and retrofit the 6400 yard charmers that have become obsolete.  Gas prices are higher, grass seed, fertilizer, etc are not going to go higher in the foreseeable future.  Healthcare for workers - up 40-60% for the last 2-3 years (in the US).  We have to pay this when we buy a round public or private.
   •   Cost of play goes hand in hand with the other increases above.  I don't see it going down.
   •   Time to play - Another nice bonus we get when we retrofit or build 7500 courses.  Double ditto for neighborhood courses where only a cart will get you around in 4.4 hours with three sub 10 handicaps.

On the other hand, eBay has made equipment much cheaper than 15 years ago, also Craigslist.  Apparently costco has done the same.  it's never been cheaper to join a private.

Competition has made public the cheapest it's ever been when compared to wages of the same time per decade.  Too many courses per capita has kept costs in check.  Geez, I just got a pair of Footboy Icon Black online for $119 no shipping, those are $290 shoes 12 months ago.  TGW has made clothing dirt cheap.

I submit that golf has never been cheaper, but taken longer to play
« Last Edit: October 11, 2016, 02:22:13 PM by Joe Sponcia »
Joe

https://pillarsofgolf.wordpress.com

"If the hole is well designed, a fairway can't be too wide". - Mike Nuzzo

Mark Pavy

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #73 on: October 11, 2016, 04:51:48 PM »

The discussion of attire and decorum and all that other stuff isn't really what I want to get into, though. I'm still much more interested in how the game's playing fields can, should, and/or actually will evolve over the next few decades, and what that evolution will mean for the game's long-term health. I'm not even really interested in the golf industry - I have no stake in golf being a lucrative business. But I do have a stake in knowing the game will find an economic balance that assures it has a future and doesn't simply disappear.


Jason,

What's your stake in knowing? Do you really want to know or are you just interested in discussing?

Jerry Kluger

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #74 on: October 11, 2016, 05:18:35 PM »
Costco has a business model where nearly all of its profit comes from membership fees.  Most products are sold at a very small profit and they use their house brand, Kirkland, to sell products at a price point below that which the actual manufacturer is willing to sell the product for.  They don't do the manufacturing, etc. and they don't do any marketing so if people don't care about the name on the product it does very well including wine, beer and alcohol.   I am drawing a blank now but there were some products that didn't go over and are no longer available.  So it is no surprise that people would buy Kirkland golf balls which are no doubt manufactured by some other company.   On the other hand nearly every time a company comes from nowhere and tries to sell a golf club they are not successful beyond the initial hype.


Golf used to be a relaxing get away from everyday hassles and distractions but that is no longer the case.  It seems that so many people of all generations are constantly checking their phones while they are on the golf course, including my fellow retired guys with nothing that important going on.  They are also answering their phones on the golf course.  It is annoying but I guess we will have to accept it as the standard.


 

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