News:

This discussion group is best enjoyed using Google Chrome, Firefox or Safari.


BCowan

Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #25 on: October 10, 2016, 12:48:05 PM »
The problem, in my mind, is not that the courses I really want to play are destination courses. The problem, at least here in the US, is that golf is too expensive, too time-consuming, and too exclusive, even at the local club level.

Incomes in this country are stagnant (for most people), and many of us with families cannot spend 5-6 hours on the golf course on a Saturday or Sunday, to say nothing of playing during the week, which is damn near impossible for a working family with kids.

Until more courses develop an ala carte-type of membership option, where one can choose what offerings he/she wants at an affordable price, I just don't see things changing.

I'm going through this debate at home myself. I have two young children. At some point, I hope they decide to play golf, if for no other reason than it will allow me to play more frequently. But with the limited opportunities I have to play, it's difficult to justify the cost of a membership at my club, which is a golf-only club.

There is one club in my area that seems to be more akin to the UK model, good golf course, simple clubhouse, few frills, larger membership, and affordable. To join, one must reside in the school district in which the club is located. I don't know exact numbers, but I understand there is a significant waiting list. That is the type of club we need more of for golf to thrive.


Brian,


I know you are familiar with golf in Cleveland. There are two courses that are worth noting that we would never discuss here at GolfClubAltas.com:


Little Met
Mastick Woods


IMO, they are worth studying. They are what golf in America needs. Affordable places for young people to learn the game.


But, sadly, I don't know if anyone would ever build such courses or whether the economics would work (green fees <$10).

Tim,

I grew up in toledo.  A retired since passed sylvania cc pro bought land and built a 10 hole course with range 25 years ago.  Called korey ridge now.  The former Inverness pro owns two golf facilities ranges w a few golf holes, people have been giving back to the game for decades. They don't need a Matty g segment on saving this or that, they just do it because they love the game and give back without looking for media validation.

Steve_ Shaffer

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #26 on: October 10, 2016, 12:51:54 PM »
Most public courses these days are very liberal on dress codes. Depending on the location, I've seen jeans and tshirts and even...cargo shorts!!!
"Some of us worship in churches, some in synagogues, some on golf courses ... "  Adlai Stevenson
Hyman Roth to Michael Corleone: "We're bigger than US Steel."
Ben Hogan “The most important shot in golf is the next one”

Thomas Dai

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #27 on: October 10, 2016, 12:52:58 PM »
It would seem that golf is a different beast in different parts of the world and not just from the climate, terrain etc perspectives either.


In some places it seems to be mainly private members clubs that dominate, in other places it's mainly pay-n-play.


So two questions -


A) to those who only play pay-n-play golf - would you like to play mostly private members golf and play pay-n-play only on rare occasions?


B) to those who play mostly private members golf - would you still play if there were no private clubs and that all golf was on a pay-n-play basis?


No slights intended or hidden agenda.


Just curious to know as golf has so many different aspects for different ages and gender of players including the likes of fresh air and exercise, social interaction and fellowship, competition etc and some of these factors may be more important to some folk than others.


Atb


PS - so Bubba also has a tattoo, that's 4 then with Danny, Lee and Seve. Would make an interesting Ryder Cup pairs match especially if Danny's brother were in social media posting mode! Any other tattoo'd Major winners (including Ladies and Seniors)?

« Last Edit: October 10, 2016, 01:38:10 PM by Thomas Dai »

Jason Thurman

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #28 on: October 10, 2016, 12:53:41 PM »
I don’t really know what I’m looking for with this thread. I decided immediately after starting it that I needed to go ahead and order a couple dozen Kirkland golf balls, so it’s accomplished that much at least. And I’m interested in the responses so far.
 
Kyle says golf is not dying, and maybe he’s right. But there’s no doubt that the game has experienced nearly a decade of significant decline that has persisted even as other economic indicators have improved. In the past, golf participation has ebbed and flowed with the economy, and maybe the same will prove true again should the economy improve more dramatically, but golf is clearly struggling for the time being.
 
I think a lot of the reasons it’s struggling are obvious and have been discussed to death already. Peter’s suggestion that the game would flourish if we all plugged into our local clubs is a romantic idea, but my last year at my local club was a $7500 expense once the dues, F&B minimums, caddie fees, locker fees, trail fees, tree management fund, capital fund, and finally, the operational assessment bills had all been paid. So I dropped my local private membership and made a public course my “home” club. And while Peter’s ideals could theoretically still be pursued through engaging with that public course and treating it like a true home club, it doesn’t really work in practice when the course is jammed with excruciatingly slow league play every weekday from 3:30p-dark during 7 of the 8 decent golfing months of the year, and when rounds on weekends are five hours at minimum unless you tee off prior to 8a. At least I have my national club… until it (probably) closes next year to be razed for housing development because the land had just become too valuable to justify keeping a perennial Golfweek Top 100 Modern golf course on it. It’s a massive catch-22 that has trapped the game – the real threat to golf’s future is that courses keep taking more and more land for more and more length, and that land keeps becoming more and more valuable for purposes other than golf while the actual value of golf courses continues to fall.
 
But I could also be wrong, and that’s sort of the point of the thread I think (because even though I started it, I still don’t really know what the point will end up being, or even if there is one). Hoover’s argument that golf needs more affordable, decent, simple golf is one that I embrace. There’s one club about 12 minutes from my house that matches his description of the type of club we need more of. I expect to join it in the next year or two. But clubs like that are the exception rather than the rule. The one in my town is bolstered by nearly 6 decades of presciently practical club culture that emphasizes keeping costs down and avoiding debt while maintaining a great golf experience for members, and it’s also helped dramatically by the fact that the club has its own water supply which greatly reduces maintenance costs. I want to be optimistic that their model could be replicated by other courses in the area, but in truth, I’m skeptical. It’s not as simple as it sounds for courses already hampered by substantial debt and other poor past decisions to adopt a more affordable and practical membership model.
 
It also strikes me that the game’s modern “farm system” for new players has become the public course. I hear stories from past decades of how caddie programs introduced so many young people to the game, and it’s easy to imagine why. The best form of golf, in my experience, is club golf with a friendly wager among friends with Evans Scholar caddies. It’s easy to see how young people caddying are attracted to that version of the game that they’re constantly exposed to. But as caddie programs continue to vanish, fewer people come to the game through those programs and more and more new golfers are introduced to the game through public golf instead. And public golf often just sucks – there are plenty of exceptions, but the norm relative to private courses (certainly in my neck of the woods) is slow play, uninspired design, and poor turf conditions.
 
Which comes back to Matt MacIver’s post, which I love. The Millennial generation loves to point out when “You’re doing it wrong,” and Millennials value highbrow experiences at affordable prices. Sometimes the experience costs a little more than the alternative: the fast-casual dining craze has taken off because eating shitty fast food isn’t worth saving 2 bucks and 2 minutes, and craft beer is hot because drinking pisswater isn’t worth it when for 50% more cash you can get 5x the flavor and 1.5x the ABV. But Millennials are brilliant at finding ways to cut costs while also improving their experience: they cut the cord on cable because they can create an all-around better TV experience for 1/5 the cost, for example. If you’re going through the drive-thru at McDonald’s to pick up dinner, eating it at home with an ice cold can of America The Beer while watching cable, then you’re doing it wrong. But will anyone care enough about golf to try “doing it right,” when there’s so much short-term revenue wrapped up in continuing to do it wrong, bastardizing the game itself by offering benignly neglected courses as a core product while emphasizing ancillary revenue generators like carts to facilitate more ancillary revenue generators like coolers full of beer in hopes that players drink enough not to notice that the actual activity is more waiting on slow players and searching for balls than actual playing? I doubt it, but there could certainly be opportunity there. It’s easy to imagine a place like Rustic Canyon being overrun by a local golf renaissance spurred by walking bearded hipsters with push carts and flannel-patterned performance fabrics and Chuck Taylor’s with softspikes who decry the guys down the road at Trump LA who are “doing it wrong,” and it’s easy to imagine places like that becoming the norm until you think about how far the average public course experience is from Rustic’s ideal.
"There will always be haters. That’s just the way it is. Hating dudes marry hating women and have hating ass kids." - Evan Turner

Some of y'all have never been called out in bold green font and it really shows.

Peter Pallotta

Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #29 on: October 10, 2016, 01:13:12 PM »
Jason, Sean - you're both right re "private clubs", but when I say join your local club I mean, in my case, joining what is essentially a public course but that has "members".  (In my town there is one truly private course, but the last time I checked -- and they are looking for members -- it was a 10 grand initiation and then $650 in monthly mandatory fees/minimums.)  But the public course membership is about $2200, and that means playing roughly 60 18 hole rounds per season, which I can't do. I'm told that the membership was much lower before the club house was built (for weddings and such) in the mid 90s. To me, that was their mistake. I'd be pleased with paying $1500 and being able to stop by anytime for 9 holes or 6...and if enough of us golfers did that we could be (fairly) sure that at least this one course would be open for years to come.
Peter 

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +1/-1
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #30 on: October 10, 2016, 01:37:53 PM »
Kyle says golf is not dying, and maybe he’s right. But there’s no doubt that the game has experienced nearly a decade of significant decline that has persisted even as other economic indicators have improved. In the past, golf participation has ebbed and flowed with the economy, and maybe the same will prove true again should the economy improve more dramatically, but golf is clearly struggling for the time being.
 


Golf is not dying, so much as "growth" itself is dying.  Whatever "other economic indicators" have improved, are just statistics made up to distract from the truth.

Peter Pallotta

Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #31 on: October 10, 2016, 01:44:52 PM »
Very good and essential point.
I think the unease in electorates across the western world is based on the dawning (if still largely unspoken) realization that for the first time since WWII the next generation will not be better off than the one before.
Our constantly growing economies and standards of living -- which to me, considering the food we can eat and the distances we travel and the comforts we enjoy,  are higher than what kings and queens enjoyed a 100 years ago -- were built on many things/by many ways, one of which was a disadvantaging of the developing world.
It seems to me there is a global rebalancing going on, and this in conjunction with environmental challenges and technological changes, means that we all will have to (or should have to) learn to live on less.
Our notions of the good life, at least for most of us, or for most of our children and grandchildren, will change/have to change.
Even with that, though, I think we will still be exceedingly blessed -- but it is important that we embrace that truth with gratitude, instead of rejecting it with anger and dissatisfaction.   
Peter   
« Last Edit: October 10, 2016, 01:49:27 PM by Peter Pallotta »

Jason Thurman

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #32 on: October 10, 2016, 01:46:01 PM »
GDP is a made up statistic? There are plenty of areas of the economy where growth is happening. Golf just isn't one of them.
"There will always be haters. That’s just the way it is. Hating dudes marry hating women and have hating ass kids." - Evan Turner

Some of y'all have never been called out in bold green font and it really shows.

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +1/-1
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #33 on: October 10, 2016, 01:54:09 PM »
GDP is a made up statistic? There are plenty of areas of the economy where growth is happening. Golf just isn't one of them.
[/quote


Name some areas where growth is happening. 


The only places I see it are where companies are siphoning off fees from every transaction we make.  Technically, that adds to GDP, but it is not "productive" in any other sense of the word.  Oh, and defense contractors.

Kyle Harris

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #34 on: October 10, 2016, 02:01:54 PM »
Perhaps what some of us are missing (and I don't know what you do for a living, Ben Cowan) is that there are two ends to the golf industry - the customers and the employees.

My perspective is equally about the employees as it is the customers.

The best companies hire the best people, and the best people these days are those that are increasingly marginalized by golf's ancient customs. There are way too many successful companies out there hiring people based on their merits that a golf course may not even consider to employ because they have a gauged piercing or visible tattoo. That notion is what is ridiculous to we Millennials.

I doubt Tom Doak would turn down an opportunity to a talented shaper with any of those things.  ;D

100 years ago, culture cared about the color of your skin
25 years ago, culture cared about your sexual orientation.

We've gotten beyond such biases.

Where are we going to be in 10 years? What will golf's views on those be? How many great minds will be excluded by the lag? 
http://kylewharris.com

Constantly blamed by 8-handicaps for their 7 missed 12-footers each round.

Thank you for changing the font of your posts. It makes them easier to scroll past.

BCowan

Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #35 on: October 10, 2016, 02:22:44 PM »
Kyle,

I didn't think u could top the idiocy of ur first post but u did.  What clubs don't let folks with tats in?  99% I would think do. 

Does streamsong allow people to play in jeans and under shirts? 

What I do for a living has no bearing on this convo. To use women and skin color as an anology is in really poor taste.  Regressives  ::)

Are u advocating 9 unelected robes to decide what private clubs do?

BCowan

Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #36 on: October 10, 2016, 02:26:07 PM »
GDP is a made up statistic? There are plenty of areas of the economy where growth is happening. Golf just isn't one of them.
[/quote


Name some areas where growth is happening. 


The only places I see it are where companies are siphoning off fees from every transaction we make.  Technically, that adds to GDP, but it is not "productive" in any other sense of the word.  Oh, and defense contractors.

Tom,

Don't forget zero down on a car or house through GSE and fed reserve actions.  What could go wrong.  Autos and food are some of the few sectors going well, I wonder why.....   

JC Jones

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #37 on: October 10, 2016, 02:40:54 PM »
Tom,

Vapes
Craft Beer
Pour over coffee
Bacon
Organic stuff
Food trucks
I get it, you are mad at the world because you are an adult caddie and few people take you seriously.

Excellent spellers usually lack any vision or common sense.

I know plenty of courses that are in the red, and they are killing it.

BHoover

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #38 on: October 10, 2016, 02:41:57 PM »
I'm no economist, not by a long shot, but I do wonder why the golf industry still seems sluggish, particularly in terms of building new courses. The S&P 500, as shown below, has been performing well. I would have thought there might be some commensurate increase in golf course construction. 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CubU9QqUMAATDrG?format=jpg&name=large


George Pazin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #39 on: October 10, 2016, 02:42:14 PM »
GDP is a made up statistic? There are plenty of areas of the economy where growth is happening. Golf just isn't one of them.


If by plenty, you mean the financial sector, then I guess you are correct...
« Last Edit: October 10, 2016, 02:56:39 PM by George Pazin »
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

Peter Pallotta

Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #40 on: October 10, 2016, 02:54:20 PM »
Shame about the vapes and the pour over coffee; as Jack LaMotta said re: over-cooking a steak, it defeats its own purpose. Sort of like golf without the exercise, but in reverse. Carts and vapes and watered down coffee, now that's living! Excuse me as I retire to Bedlam....
« Last Edit: October 10, 2016, 02:55:57 PM by Peter Pallotta »

John Kirk

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #41 on: October 10, 2016, 02:58:08 PM »
GDP is a made up statistic? There are plenty of areas of the economy where growth is happening. Golf just isn't one of them.

GDP is measured in dollars (currency).  I can imagine ways in which this number can be manipulated.  For instance, increased government spending, fueled by debt, can make this number grow.

I like this topic, Jason, and especially like your two long posts on the subject.  The bulk of the conversation has strayed from the opening post.

The golf equipment business has thrived on brand recognition, high profit margins, and the myth of consistent, significant technological improvements.  I recently told a friend that I thought there were probably enough nice golf clubs around for everyone.  At a minimum, the golf business is ripe for some squeezing of profit margins.  I will try the generic golf balls.  I'm not too proud to play a Kirkland.  Expect further consolidation of the golf equipment business.

However, that doesn't solve the primary problem of golf operations requiring lots of cheap energy, in a world with many competing uses for that energy. 

George Pazin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #42 on: October 10, 2016, 02:58:49 PM »
I'm no economist, not by a long shot, but I do wonder why the golf industry still seems sluggish, particularly in terms of building new courses. The S&P 500, as shown below, has been performing well. I would have thought there might be some commensurate increase in golf course construction. 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CubU9QqUMAATDrG?format=jpg&name=large




Printing money as economic policy rarely helps anyone outside the financial sector. Why would you expect golf to benefit from such an approach?
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

JC Jones

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #43 on: October 10, 2016, 03:06:27 PM »
GDP is a made up statistic? There are plenty of areas of the economy where growth is happening. Golf just isn't one of them.

GDP is measured in dollars (currency).  I can imagine ways in which this number can be manipulated.  For instance, increased government spending, fueled by debt, can make this number grow.

I like this topic, Jason, and especially like your two long posts on the subject.  The bulk of the conversation has strayed from the opening post.

The golf equipment business has thrived on brand recognition, high profit margins, and the myth of consistent, significant technological improvements.  I recently told a friend that I thought there were probably enough nice golf clubs around for everyone.  At a minimum, the golf business is ripe for some squeezing of profit margins.  I will try the generic golf balls.  I'm not too proud to play a Kirkland.  Expect further consolidation of the golf equipment business.

However, that doesn't solve the primary problem of golf operations requiring lots of cheap energy, in a world with many competing uses for that energy.

What do you think the profit margin is in hard goods?
I get it, you are mad at the world because you are an adult caddie and few people take you seriously.

Excellent spellers usually lack any vision or common sense.

I know plenty of courses that are in the red, and they are killing it.

Kyle Harris

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #44 on: October 10, 2016, 03:08:44 PM »
Kyle,

I didn't think u could top the idiocy of ur first post but u did.  What clubs don't let folks with tats in?  99% I would think do. 

Does streamsong allow people to play in jeans and under shirts? 

What I do for a living has no bearing on this convo. To use women and skin color as an anology is in really poor taste.  Regressives  ::)

Are u advocating 9 unelected robes to decide what private clubs do?

It's not a question of whom they are letting in into the club, it's a question of whom they are employing at the club, and perhaps to be more specific, whom the governing bodies are employing, or the governing body's members.

In the next twenty years, what does your potential employee pool look like? Walk into a place like Chipotle or Applebee's in any college town and take a look at what your future college graduates look like, and then envision them sitting across from your desk in a job interview. Are you going to hire them based on their merits or based on appearance? If you don't hire them, does your competitor?

Suppose I'm a 16 year old who plays golf at the local muni, I have a gauged piercing and when I turn 18 have a specific sleeve tattoo I want to get. I want to a grow a beard, as is the style right now. I'm an A-student and moderately intelligent and look into the golf industry as a career and see that my lifestyle choices, which are now quite mainstream and normalized, clash with your so-called values that have nothing to do with my ability to contribute.

Why the hell would I chose that career when so many other careers are willing to accept me as is?

That's why what you do for a living has a bearing on this conversation. I've spent the past ten years of my life in this specific job pool, and the past five years of my life vetting the aforementioned job pool and I'll tell you, the above 16 year old exists and is asking that question.

For the record, I loathe pour over coffee.  ;D
http://kylewharris.com

Constantly blamed by 8-handicaps for their 7 missed 12-footers each round.

Thank you for changing the font of your posts. It makes them easier to scroll past.

Mark Pavy

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #45 on: October 10, 2016, 03:19:47 PM »
I believe participation will double over the next 10 years.

I also believe you have something to look forward to.

JC Jones

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #46 on: October 10, 2016, 03:27:03 PM »


For the record, I loathe pour over coffee.  ;D

Cold brew?
I get it, you are mad at the world because you are an adult caddie and few people take you seriously.

Excellent spellers usually lack any vision or common sense.

I know plenty of courses that are in the red, and they are killing it.

John Kirk

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #47 on: October 10, 2016, 03:38:40 PM »
What do you think the profit margin is in hard goods?

JC,

putting me on the spot...

First, I looked up Callaway's financials on Yahoo Finance.

For 2015,

Revenue is $844M
"Cost Of Revenue" is $486M
Selling and General Administration Expenses is $297M
Research & Development is $33M

Operating Income is about $27M

What this tells me is the gross profit on equipment may be as high as 40%.  Then they spend a bunch of money on selling and advertising to distinguish their product from other similar products.

A couple of relevant links about the golf business:

http://www.mygolfspy.com/insiders-view-golf-equipment-sales/
https://www.ft.com/content/1ff10cb8-198f-11e4-8730-00144feabdc0

The whole system looks very inefficient to me, and highly reliant on marketing to establish brand differentiation.  My prediction, for many items, is a gradual transition to a direct business to customer model, with many purchases ordered online and delivered to the home.

In my opinion, the process of selecting the best golf clubs is accomplished by a personal fitting session.  There will always be a market for this personalized attention, a great new development in club purchase.  I was fitted for a new set of irons a couple years ago, and I expect these irons will work for another 10-15 years.

David_Tepper

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #48 on: October 10, 2016, 03:43:13 PM »
Callaway's share price is certainly the highest it has been in the last 5 years. Business can't be that bad. ;)

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ely&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=12

JC Jones

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Devil's Advocate argument on the game's demise
« Reply #49 on: October 10, 2016, 03:43:38 PM »
John,

So, if we use Callaway as the "average," is it your assertion that a 40% profit margin is too high? 
I get it, you are mad at the world because you are an adult caddie and few people take you seriously.

Excellent spellers usually lack any vision or common sense.

I know plenty of courses that are in the red, and they are killing it.

Tags:
Tags:

An Error Has Occurred!

Call to undefined function theme_linktree()
Back