[Adam Lawrence]

'Crystal ball' time - what would be the result if David Cameron called a snap General Election right now?

What's the line about "The brave shall inherit the earth" - courageous move or folly?


atb

Irrelevant - he can't.

[Thomas Dai]

'Crystal ball' time - what would be the result if David Cameron called a snap General Election right now?
What's the line about "The brave shall inherit the earth" - courageous move or folly?

atb

Irrelevant - he can't.

Quite right. Once upon a time, calling a UK G-E could be done by the PM seeing the Monarch and dissolving Parliament and about three weeks later it was 'vote time'. No longer. A couple of years ago the law was changed and now it's either wait for the current 5-year term to lapse (May 2015), hold and win/lose a vote of no-confidence in the Govt (or form a new Govt) or if 2/3rd's of MP's vote for a G-E. Calling a short notice G-E was used a few times in the past, for example, Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher both used it to enhance their political positions.
It's worth noting that in the Scottish Referendum 16 yr olds were given the opportunity to vote. In a G-E the voting age throughout the UK is 18. I believe the age that you have to be to vote in a Scottish Assembly election is also 18.
Democracy is a strange creature.
atb

[Dónal Ó Ceallaigh]

'Crystal ball' time - what would be the result if David Cameron called a snap General Election right now?
What's the line about "The brave shall inherit the earth" - courageous move or folly?

atb

Irrelevant - he can't.

Quite right. Once upon a time, calling a UK G-E could be done by the PM seeing the Monarch and dissolving Parliament and about three weeks later it was 'vote time'. No longer. A couple of years ago the law was changed and now it's either wait for the current 5-year term to lapse (May 2015), hold and win/lose a vote of no-confidence in the Govt (or form a new Govt) or if 2/3rd's of MP's vote for a G-E. Calling a short notice G-E was used a few times in the past, for example, Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher both used it to enhance their political positions.
It's worth noting that in the Scottish Referendum 16 yr olds were given the opportunity to vote. In a G-E the voting age throughout the UK is 18. I believe the age that you have to be to vote in a Scottish Assembly election is also 18.
Democracy is a strange creature.
atb

Thomas,

I'm glad they changed that rule. I always thought it was a terrible abuse of democracy. You wrote that even if you win a no-confidence vote, you can still call an election. Still a bit of a loop hole, althought a risky one at that.

[Thomas Dai]

'Crystal ball' time - what would be the result if David Cameron called a snap General Election right now?
What's the line about "The brave shall inherit the earth" - courageous move or folly?

atb

Irrelevant - he can't.

Quite right. Once upon a time, calling a UK G-E could be done by the PM seeing the Monarch and dissolving Parliament and about three weeks later it was 'vote time'. No longer. A couple of years ago the law was changed and now it's either wait for the current 5-year term to lapse (May 2015), hold and win/lose a vote of no-confidence in the Govt (or form a new Govt) or if 2/3rd's of MP's vote for a G-E. Calling a short notice G-E was used a few times in the past, for example, Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher both used it to enhance their political positions.
It's worth noting that in the Scottish Referendum 16 yr olds were given the opportunity to vote. In a G-E the voting age throughout the UK is 18. I believe the age that you have to be to vote in a Scottish Assembly election is also 18.
Democracy is a strange creature.
atb

Thomas,
I'm glad they changed that rule. I always thought it was a terrible abuse of democracy. You wrote that even if you win a no-confidence vote, you can still call an election. Still a bit of a loop hole, althought a risky one at that.

Donal,

My phrasing could have been improved. When I wrote 'win/lose' I meant a 'win' for one side (opposition), a 'lose' for the other (govt). The law says something like "you have a G-E if a no confidence vote is passed in the Govt by a majority in the HoC and no motion is passed providing confidence in a new Govt" Complex subject, easy to mis-write about it - hey that reminds me of a politician! She "mis-spoke", I 'mis-wrote' (sic!)

What started out as, please forgive my wording, on the face of it 'just' a Scottish referendum has opened quite a few tins of worms, and with probably other currently unforeseen tins to come.

A while back in this thread I wrote that "Democracy, or what appertains to be democracy, can be a strange beast." Interesting times ahead, and no doubt expensive times too in terms of taxpayers money, although as is sometimes said "a week is a long time in politics"!

atb

[Jon Wiggett]

Thomas,

I would imagine that even if he could call a GE Cameron would not right now. Why would you when you opposite number is so eager to dig a hole for himself and his party. Even some of his own party were on radio today saying that it is better to put the best interests of the public a head of the interests of his party.

Although I could be wrong and Miliband is a genius.

Jon

[Rich Goodale]

Rich, are you envisioning four nations which are for most purposes independent, but share defence and a foreign service? Is there anything else (besides currency and therefore monetary policy) that would be centralised?

FWIW I think you are probably right.

Chris

Short-Medium term, that is a reasonable result, but as Sean and I have said, it's going to be a very messy affair, and if the three major parties don't give England the same sort of powers that Scotland, Wales and NI will be given, the Union could fall apart very quickly.  Then again there is the UKIP factor and the possibility of a referendum on splitting from the EU, which the Conservatives seem to have vowed to hold if they win a majority in the May 2015 elections.  Westminster has put itself in a complete fankle, and given the weakness of the leadership for each of the 3 parties, I fear that nothing significant will be done, and the natives will become more and more reckless.

David T

I think you seriously underestimate Salmond and Sturgeon's (and Scotland's) capabilities and even more seriously overestimate the ability of rUK to deal with the Pandora's box they have opened up.

Rich

PS--interesting poll

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/7-fascinating-insights-into-why-scotland-voted-against-indep?utm_term=4j1ad8#2vwnouy

[Jon Wiggett]

Rich,

it is going to be very interesting seeing how this pans out. It would be very ironic if the 'Vow' made by the three unionist parties in an attempt to keep the union together were to be the cause of it being dismantled by the same three parties. I do not think there is any appetite in England for regional devolution amongst the English population but a big appetite for an English parliament but probably not in Westminster or even the SE.

Very interesting poll

Jon

[David_Tepper]

This is what I would really be worrying about.

http://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2014/09/scotch-suffers-11-drop-in-exports/

[Tony_Muldoon]

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/focus/article1461750.ece

Rich how did you get round the Paywall? This was interesting yesterday.

Ferdinand Mount has been in a Tory think tank on more power for England.  His suggestion follow a conservative approach, but this is what the PM will be listening to right now.

One fact I had completely missed.  When Jim Callaghan lost the minority support of a party of 3, he called an election and Mrs Thatcher was elected. The name of the party? Why the SNP of course! They have been causing trouble for some time now

This is starting to resemble the history of Irish Politics where many time actions end up benefitting your opponents and unlikely bedfellows are created.  The Ironies have not ended just now.

[Rich Goodale]

What paywall, Tony?

I did see Mount's piece as I'm a Times subscriber (even though they were shamelessly biased in their coverage of the referendum campaign....).

The most interesting twist and turn of today is the fact that the SNP is seeing a massive increase in party membership and polls show them almost at a majority of the Scottish electorate in the aftermath of DevoMaxGate.  Unless Labour get's its finger out of its a**e, it is possible (even though unlikely) that they could become the largest Scottish bloc in the May 2105 UK Parliament, and if so possibly able to demand Independence ipso facto.  In such a case, I would suspect that Cameron would make faint protestations, but let them go, given that it would insure him and his party rule of England for most of the rest of our lifetime.

David

I'm not at all concerned about whisky exports.  As all excise taxes currently go to Westminster and not to Scotland, Independence would be a boon for us fiscally in the amount of ~£1billion.  Market-wise, I don't think that the Scottish Whisky industry fears competition from Glenbasildon or Black Country single malts........

Rich

[Jon Wiggett]

Rich,

it would not surprise me at all if the SNP make large gains in the UK elections. I just cannot see Labour being able to turn their fortunes around as the top table come across as bunch of bumbling idiots who are clearly putting the interests of the party ahead of that of the electorate. The Tories (no shining stars themselves) will have very little problem in promoting Labour as being against public opinion.

It is also not really surprising that the SNP and to a certain extent the greens have seen an increase in membership as I know from first hand experience that whilst there representatives were pushing the 'YES' campaign they were also pushing their respective parties and getting peoples details as well as signing up new members. The increase in membership possibly reflects these new members acquired over the last few months being processed now.

As for 'ipso facto' do you really think that is going to happen  Salmond has withdrawn to the side lines as a defeated almost man who came so close but could not quite pull off the deal when he had it in reach. No full independence is a done deal for another generation unless Westminster renege on their promise which is not beyond the realms of possibility.

Jon

[Ed Tilley]

The most interesting twist and turn of today is the fact that the SNP is seeing a massive increase in party membership and polls show them almost at a majority of the Scottish electorate in the aftermath of DevoMaxGate.  Unless Labour get's its finger out of its a**e, it is possible (even though unlikely) that they could become the largest Scottish bloc in the May 2105 UK Parliament, and if so possibly able to demand Independence ipso facto.  In such a case, I would suspect that Cameron would make faint protestations, but let them go, given that it would insure him and his party rule of England for most of the rest of our lifetime.
Rich

I believe that there have been only 4 occasions in history when the result of the UK election was different to the result if only English MPs were elected. The last was obviously the most recent - the Tories have a (small) majority in England but not in the UK. Labour won substantial majorities in the previous 3 elections in England. The idea that England has overwhelming Conservative support is just not factually correct - don't confuse S.E. England with England overall. The Tories are about as popular in Blackburn, Lancashire as Blackburn, West Lothian.

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