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Mark Saltzman

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1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« on: November 03, 2011, 08:32:05 PM »
In another thread (http://www.golfclubatlas.com/forum/index.php/topic,48133.0.html) Matt Ward extolled the virtues of the 14th and 15th holes at Dormie Club in Pinehurst, NC.  It seems that almost everyone agreed, but for a single dissenting opinion.  I am the second to disagree.  N.B. I loved the golf course as a whole.

I am not saying the holes are bad, just that something seems off with them.  They are holes that should provide many strategic options/decisions, but I believe for any given player, there will be only a single way to play the hole and this is because of an unbalanced risk/reward equation.  On 14 there is too little reward to justify any risk, and on 15 there is too significant a risk to justify the reward.


Let's begin with the 14th.  A nice respite after the 500+ yard, into the wind, par 4 13th, no doubt.  But, in my mind, it is a very mediocre short par-4.  

At 307 yards, uphill, there are only a handful of players who can reach the green from the tee.  For this select group, the hole is probably very interesting.  I'm not part of this group and could care less how the hole plays for them.

Much like the 14th at Bandon Trails, the ideal tee shot will hug the left side of this fairway, which cants severely from left-to-right.  Aside from a steep run-off on the right side of the green, that seems to be where the similarity ends.  There will be no debate about whether or not this hole is fair. There is zero reason not to make 4 (or 3).  The green is protected by a solitary bunker at the front-right portion of the green (up-and-down from here is not a problem).  

Ostensibly (and perhaps in practice) the ideal approach is from the left, where one has a choice between a lofted approach and a ground -game option (though, let's be honest, how many even in this group will opt for anything but the LW from 75 yards).  The approach from the right is visually intimidating because of the bunker, but simple in practice.  The green slopes somewhat severely from back-left to front-right, making approaches from the right side of the fairway very easy to control once they land on the green (ie they will stop quickly).

A somewhat bad spot (though certainly recoverable - my playing partner made 3 from there) is just short of the bunker leaving a delicate chip.

The only really bad spot off the tee is missing in the left woods.

So here's my question: with woods left and trouble right, it being impossible to reach the green for most players, and an approach from short-right being one of the toughest spots, does this hole not become a bore with the prudent player always hitting hybrid(ish) to the centre/right part of the fairway, and SW into the slope of the green? I understand that in matchplay, things change, but there is no way a thinking player will ever hit driver here.  Just so little reward for the added risk.


From the Tee




Approach from the Left






Approach from the Right




Onto hole 15...

A tee shot we've all seen many times before, a forced carry over a diagonal hazard.  After the tee shot, however, this is no ordinary hole.  An interesting aspect discussed by Ed Oden here (http://www.golfclubatlas.com/forum/index.php/topic,46385.0.html) is that the green is in view from the tee but is blind from the fairway.

From the tees I played, it is a 215 yard carry over the hazard at the left side of the fairway bunkers.  Given the severe angle of the crossing hazard, the carry gets much longer on more aggressive lines.  The fairway bunkers (which are a terrible spot to approach from) mean that even for bombers, there is no option to just 'kill it and find it.'  The green is probably 340 yards on a straight line and I suppose is reachable for a select few, but again, I don't worry about them.

Off the tee, anything missed just a bit right, to quote Mr. Ward, is "reload city."  There is no way anyone will purposely challenge the right side.  Given the long carry off the tee, most players will not hit anything but driver.  Longer players could challenge the right side by tying  to be more precise with hybrid (or similar), but our caddies said that "no one ever, ever tries that.  If you can carry with hybrid, great.  Hit hybrid just left of the bunkers."  So much for options.






Now the hole gets interesting.  This picture is taken from the centre of the fairway and on a line that very few players would ever be purposely right of.  Clearly, the approach is completely blind, hitting over the hill.  Unfortunately, I don't have a picture, but from the right 1/3 of the fairway, one has a clear view of the green.




Over the hill is a very unique green, playing at almost a 45 degree angle to the left side of the fairway.  There is a signficant downslope short of the green and a huge back ridge the helps stop balls from going over the green (both are very flattened by the camera).  The problem is that the target is so narrow that almost no one can aim for it.  Our caddies said you just hit the ball up on the hill short of the green and hope it rolls onto the green.  Usually it does, but sometimes it doesn't, and then you're screwed.  OK, fine, rub of the green and all that, but when approaching from the right you don't have this issue.  You have a clearer look up the throat of the green with sideboards.  A great opportunity for 3.






And a look at the severe penalty for missing long/right






So here's my problem: This is such a cool approach, but I feel for almost all who play it, too much of it will come down to luck.  There is definitely a benefit to being on the right side of the fairway, a big one, but not one big enough to justify a stroke and distance penalty.  I think C&C just barely missed the mark here.  If the hole was shorter (and the forced carry shorter), it would be exceptional.  If the angle of the hazard were not quite as severe, it could be exceptional.  As is, it is lay-up tee shot, luck approach, but it could be so much more.

Well, what does the Treehouse think of these holes?
« Last Edit: November 06, 2011, 01:26:54 PM by Mark Saltzman »

David Hendler

Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2011, 09:03:14 PM »
When I played there last month, I went for it both times.  On 14 I made the green. On 15 I visited "reload city"...

#14 offers little challenge if you anything less than driver.  #15 is a great hole in my opinion although you are correct in stating that it is a little too severe on the right side.   I wonder if C&C made #15 so tough because of the relative ease on #14.

Great course, I really enjoyed it and is a MUST PLAY if you are in the Pinehurst area.

Cory Lewis

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2011, 09:13:52 PM »
So here's my question: with woods left and trouble right, it being impossible to reach the green for most players, and an approach from short-right being one of the toughest spots, does this hole not become a bore with the prudent player always hitting hybrid(ish) to the centre/right part of the fairway, and SW into the slope of the green? I understand that in matchplay, things change, but there is no way a thinking player will ever hit driver here.  Just so little reward for the added risk.

Mark,

I have caddied at Dormie since the beginning of this year. I can tell you from my experience that 90% of all players hit driver on 14.  In my loops at Dormie I have actually seen almost as many birdies on 14 from the left woods as I have from people hitting wedge over the bunker. My explanation for this is that people in the woods concentrate more on hitting a low bump and run and end up with a better result than they expected.  People hitting wedge over the bunker struggle with the pin point accuracy that is required to give them a good birdie opportunity.  14 is my favorite hole on the golf course.  I love how one bunker and a well-designed green can provide so much interest architecturally.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2011, 09:22:38 PM by Cory Lewis »
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Mark Saltzman

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2011, 09:59:37 PM »
Cory,

Thanks for the response.

I am not surprised that most players hit driver.  A wise man once said, "the public golfer always hits driver."  I am more interested in repeat plays.  No doubt you know better than I, but it seems to me that the play is still to bail out right rather than run the risk of challenging the left.  I see little or no benefit being on the left because of the shape of the green.

Could this hole be a response to Trails 14?  That hole can only be approached from one place.  It seems that this hole can be approached from anywhere.  The fact that people can make birdie from the left, where I think is the most difficult place to approach the green from, convinces me that I am right.

Perhaps making the hole shorter would make it more interesting? 

Jason Topp

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2011, 10:10:02 PM »
Thanks for the thoughtful thread Mark. I would love to see more of these   

I have never played the holes but the acid test for me is "does it tempt?". (not an original thought i know).  From your pictures and descriptions it appears to me that the 14th would tempt me to hit driver but the 15th would not tempt me to try for the right side of the fairway.

Cory

I thought all of the holes on this course turned left?  :)

Cory Lewis

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2011, 10:11:27 PM »
No doubt you know better than I, but it seems to me that the play is still to bail out right rather than run the risk of challenging the left.  I see little or no benefit being on the left because of the shape of the green.

IMO the best angle is from the left.  You have a clear view of the green and the pin, you can hit a bump and run, which I often encourage, and you can use the contours of the green to your advantage.  Obviously the low handicapper has more control of their wedge game, but the average player is so concerned about getting over the bunker they struggle to hold the green from the right.  What I find fascinating about 14 is the farther you hit it down the right side, the more severe your angle becomes for your second shot.  If you hit it far enough, you no longer have to hit it over the bunker, but now the target area is smaller and you are faced with a severe drop off in front of your target.  Psychologically, it's a brilliant hole
« Last Edit: November 03, 2011, 10:15:25 PM by Cory Lewis »
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Ed Oden

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2011, 10:25:40 PM »
I think Cory's analysis of #14 is spot on.  I hit driver and would do so again. 

As for #15, I don't have the game to challenge the right side.  But I'll bet good golfers do all the time.  There is a huge reward since it not only shortens the hole, it also provides a clean view and the best angle of approach.  Remember, you don't really have to hit the extreme right side to cash your ticket.  The cant of the fairway will get you there if you can land just a shade right of center.

jeffwarne

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2011, 10:31:20 PM »
Mark,
What's wrong with a driveable par 4 that most/you can't drive?
307 uphill is a mighty blast, yet certainly doable by some/many these days, particularly given the open approach.

Too many modern par 4's are designed so many/most can have a go, which to me takes away the excitement of doing it
(Do you really want to brag about driving a green everyone can reach?)
Occasionally it's nice to have to blast one to do it
Sure it's less choices, but I'd hit driver as I like to be as close as possible(even though I couldn't reach ;))


I love the simplicity of the hole-and I'd think it was cool if it was 330 -340 yards as well (a really unpopular distance)
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

Bart Bradley

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2011, 10:36:20 PM »
I agree that this is a thoughtful thread and wish more were like it.  But I also disagree with the premise.  I think 15 offers the best players a large reward for a fairly large risk.  Just because my game dictates that I should hit a three wood to the left side means the hole IS strategic.  It offers me an option for a safer tee shot, but one that comes with a significant disadvantage:  a much more difficult approach.  Given the way modern balls/clubs allow good players to hit their drives, their must occassionally be a significant penalty to get their attention (the possible reload) and make them consider the options.  

Bart

Kris Shreiner

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2011, 11:29:49 PM »
Great thread! I think you are being a little severe in your assessments of options on these holes Mark. While most of us can't drive the green on that that short four, don't assume that every player will automatically hit what gets him/her closet for the next shot. Certain days, depending on wind or firmness, many players will hit much less off the tee so they can flight in something different than the stock lob or sand shot.

I've walked the course and seen both of those holes twice, but I'm finally going to tee it up there this weekend and I'm totally juiced to play what I think is a superb golf course. With the proper refinements, the presentation when mature there, in a couple of years, will compare with some of C&C's best from my view. In fact, DC has a good chance of becoming as good an inland course as has been built in the last 10 years if the principles give it the love it deserves.

Take elements of PV, Merion and Pinehurst #2, toss them in a dice shaker and spill them out on that undulating ground...it's pretty damn special!

Cheers,
Kris 8)
"I said in a talk at the Dunhill Tournament in St. Andrews a few years back that I thought any of the caddies I'd had that week would probably make a good golf course architect. We all want to ask golfers of all abilities to get more out of their games -caddies do that for a living." T.Doak

Sam Morrow

Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2011, 11:36:53 PM »
Great thread, I always enjoy Mark's pictures and we are lucky to have an expert on Dormie like Cory. I have to echo Jason's statement though, I'd been told that all the holes at Dormie went left? :o

Bill_McBride

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2011, 08:43:17 AM »
Great thread, I always enjoy Mark's pictures and we are lucky to have an expert on Dormie like Cory. I have to echo Jason's statement though, I'd been told that all the holes at Dormie went left? :o

Did you see the photo of 15?   Somebody told you wrong!

Mark Saltzman

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2011, 09:38:33 AM »
No doubt you know better than I, but it seems to me that the play is still to bail out right rather than run the risk of challenging the left.  I see little or no benefit being on the left because of the shape of the green.

IMO the best angle is from the left.  You have a clear view of the green and the pin, you can hit a bump and run, which I often encourage, and you can use the contours of the green to your advantage.

Cory,

I'm just going from memory from two plays, so I could be off.  The left side of the fairway is ideal - agreed.  But what about missing left of the fairway.  I recall there being some trees and pine needles over there.  And from there does the green not slope directly away from you (because it slopes generally from left to right)?  I, fortunately, did not hit one over there, but I think getting the ball on the green from there would be next to impossible.

Mark Saltzman

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2011, 09:41:51 AM »


As for #15, I don't have the game to challenge the right side.  But I'll bet good golfers do all the time.  

Ed, I call bullsh*t.  You're better than 97.4% of golfers who play Dormie.  If you're not going for it, then I don't care about the small percentage of golfers who would.  And, I would argue that even they wouldn't as they could hit their approaches high/soft enough from the fairway to land the ball on the green from the blind spot in the fairway.

Agreed about the cant of the fairway.  Still, in the 6 or so tee shots that I saw hit the fairway, none caromed enough to find a clear view of the green.

Mark Saltzman

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2011, 09:45:11 AM »
Mark,
What's wrong with a driveable par 4 that most/you can't drive?
307 uphill is a mighty blast, yet certainly doable by some/many these days, particularly given the open approach.

Too many modern par 4's are designed so many/most can have a go, which to me takes away the excitement of doing it
(Do you really want to brag about driving a green everyone can reach?)
Occasionally it's nice to have to blast one to do it
Sure it's less choices, but I'd hit driver as I like to be as close as possible(even though I couldn't reach ;))


I love the simplicity of the hole-and I'd think it was cool if it was 330 -340 yards as well (a really unpopular distance)

Jeff,

there ain't nothing wrong with it.  I haven't found many 'driveable' par-4s that I can drive.  I hit it short, hit my wedges well, and make a lot of putts. 

But, this one is boring to me.  I'll hit 3W, LW every time I play it.  I have 60 yards of fairway to hit that 3W and no real care as to what part of the fairway I find.  Add a bunker in the centre of the fairway 80 yards short of the green and I have something to think about, but as is... it's a bit dull for me.

Mark Saltzman

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2011, 09:49:17 AM »
I agree that this is a thoughtful thread and wish more were like it.  But I also disagree with the premise.  I think 15 offers the best players a large reward for a fairly large risk.  Just because my game dictates that I should hit a three wood to the left side means the hole IS strategic.  It offers me an option for a safer tee shot, but one that comes with a significant disadvantage:  a much more difficult approach.  Given the way modern balls/clubs allow good players to hit their drives, their must occassionally be a significant penalty to get their attention (the possible reload) and make them consider the options.  

Bart

Bart,

very good points, can't say I disagree.  There is a big advantage to being on the right side of the fairway.  A  very big one, no doubt.  It is a completely different hole from there.  I just don't think you'll every see a player purposely hit it over there.  You sound like a good golfer, Ed's a good golfer, I'm a good golfer, and not one of us would consider trying this shot. 

Perhaps if the brush was cleared a bit (they're actually trying to do this now) to the right of the fairway, meaning there would be a chance of finding/hitting the ball from a miss right, the hole gets much better.

I just feel that it is a fantastic design that is just slightly off.

N.B. Playing from the forward tees it is a really fun short par-4. And it's even driveable for me  ;D

Mark Saltzman

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2011, 09:53:17 AM »
Great thread! I think you are being a little severe in your assessments of options on these holes Mark. While most of us can't drive the green on that that short four, don't assume that every player will automatically hit what gets him/her closet for the next shot. Certain days, depending on wind or firmness, many players will hit much less off the tee so they can flight in something different than the stock lob or sand shot.

I've walked the course and seen both of those holes twice, but I'm finally going to tee it up there this weekend and I'm totally juiced to play what I think is a superb golf course. With the proper refinements, the presentation when mature there, in a couple of years, will compare with some of C&C's best from my view. In fact, DC has a good chance of becoming as good an inland course as has been built in the last 10 years if the principles give it the love it deserves.

Take elements of PV, Merion and Pinehurst #2, toss them in a dice shaker and spill them out on that undulating ground...it's pretty damn special!

Cheers,
Kris 8)

Kris,

I may be severe. The holes are good - I'm not saying "Blow up and start over" or whatever the BT quote was.  15 in particular I think could be really special, but I see it as just missing the mark.  14 is fine, but a bit dull.  Maybe it gets better on repeat plays, but I'm not seeing it.

You'll love DC, I did.  I like to nitpick.  I already complained about the Redan at Shinny  ???

I haven't done it, but in a hole-by-hole comparison with #2, I'm not sure who wins.  DC certainly wins on the 'fun factor'.

Mark Saltzman

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2011, 09:55:05 AM »
Great thread, I always enjoy Mark's pictures and we are lucky to have an expert on Dormie like Cory. I have to echo Jason's statement though, I'd been told that all the holes at Dormie went left? :o

Sam,

the following holes go left: 2, 4, 8, 10, 17 (and 1 and 18 very gently).

the following holes go right: 15 (and 11 gently)

hhuffines

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2011, 10:34:31 AM »
Mark, thanks for the photos!  I wonder if you have any of the waste/scrub area on the inside of #10, the par 5 (i think)?

Also, how is the overall conditioning and the speed of the greens?

Mark Saltzman

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2011, 05:10:10 PM »
Mark, thanks for the photos!  I wonder if you have any of the waste/scrub area on the inside of #10, the par 5 (i think)?

Also, how is the overall conditioning and the speed of the greens?

Conditioning was close to ideal. Green speeds were perfect given their undulating nature. Course played firm, but not quite as firm as I'd hoped. Short irons stuck (ie didn't bounce) and often spun.

Cory Lewis

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2011, 05:11:35 PM »
But what about missing left of the fairway.  I recall there being some trees and pine needles over there.  And from there does the green not slope directly away from you (because it slopes generally from left to right)?  I, fortunately, did not hit one over there, but I think getting the ball on the green from there would be next to impossible.

Not at all.  The green does slope left to right but if you have a clear shot from the woods, which obviously is not always the case, then you are able to land it short of the green and run it on, even when the pin is back right, your angle and margin for error are much bigger than from the right side.  I watched a guy today punch a 9 iron out of the trees to 6 feet. There is less pressure on you when hitting a simple punch or bump and run.  That is what really makes the hole so good IMO.  No matter where the pin is, a bold shot down the left side will reward you with an easier birdie opportunity.  Miss a little left and you are in the woods, but you still have a chance if you execute properly.
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Jim Franklin

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2011, 05:27:46 PM »
I missed way left on #14 and found a hole in the trees to hit a lofted shot to the green. Should have made birdie too. I would hit driver again too.

#15 is cool too. I have the distance to challenge the right side but pulled my drive straight and had a horrendous lie between the bunkers. Next time there, I would challenge the right a little more.

I had a great caddie there too.
Mr Hurricane

George Pazin

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2011, 05:28:41 PM »


As for #15, I don't have the game to challenge the right side.  But I'll bet good golfers do all the time.  

Ed, I call bullsh*t.  You're better than 97.4% of golfers who play Dormie.  If you're not going for it, then I don't care about the small percentage of golfers who would.

Isn't it necessary to have occasional holes that only tempt one "class" of golfer? Surely all holes can't be all things to all golfers.

Interesting thread regardless.
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

Mark Saltzman

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2011, 05:56:51 PM »


As for #15, I don't have the game to challenge the right side.  But I'll bet good golfers do all the time.  

Ed, I call bullsh*t.  You're better than 97.4% of golfers who play Dormie.  If you're not going for it, then I don't care about the small percentage of golfers who would.

Isn't it necessary to have occasional holes that only tempt one "class" of golfer? Surely all holes can't be all things to all golfers.

Interesting thread regardless.


You are probably right.  I was questioning whether the risk/reward ratios were off on these two holes, hence the "?" at the end of my thread title.

For me, the ratios are off.  I'm fairly certain that both holes would be a lay-up tee shot every time I play them. 

I wanted to know if others felt the same way.  It seems they don't feel the same, even though most (all except Mr. Franklin) didn't/couldn't challenge the right on 15.

14 is now really confusing me.  I guess I'll have to see it again, hopefully sooner rather than later.  The picture of the hole I have in my mind is not  syncing with how Cory is describing it.



William_G

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Re: 1+1=3, Miscalculated Risk/Reward Ratios at Dormie Club?
« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2011, 06:18:36 PM »
Mark,

Thanks for the photos....

When I played #14 @ Dormie, it did remind of 14 @ Trails except the hole at Dormie is much tamer and maybe not as drivable... Simple driver, pitch, putt... a birdie hole

15 is the most photographed hole and much talked about...definitely all about the 2nd shot after you reach the fairway...and being a blind 2nd, it is uncomfortable for everyone

It's all about the golf!

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