News:

This discussion group is best enjoyed using Google Chrome, Firefox or Safari.


Ian Andrew

Looking Ahead at Next Year
« on: October 22, 2008, 06:14:53 PM »
Today I was on site at Cherry Hill walking through the last of the renovation work which is being completed this fall when one of the members said, So whats the big project next year?

I turned and look at him and said I dont know.

It got me thinking about whether next year would be the off year that I always said must eventually come. This same week I was talking to my friend Bruce and he mentioned that new work was drying up and that they will be looking for more renovation work going forward. This got me thinking about the fact that many of the big players in Golf Architecture have already begun to chase the renovation work pretty hard over the last few years in order to support their large overheads. I was recently beaten out for a pretty good renovation job by a large US firm. 5 years ago they would not have pursued that work - it was too small for them.

I noticed that a call I had recently received about a US club featured a number of big players in the mix rather than the usual smaller firms that I was more used to being up against. As I thought about it more I realized that the landscape had changed in the last 12 months and this was beginning to feel a little like 1992-93, the last real downturn in the golf design business.

The similarities are interesting. Both eras featured a great deal of economic fear with talk of a coming recession. Clubs in both periods finding themselves short of members and with no waiting lists. Public courses on the high end find that they have open times and are being forced to cut fees to fill the time sheet. There bread and butter, the weekday businessman, had all of a sudden gone missing. Both periods followed a major build outt hat left the market saturated with too many high end courses. This time its high end public, last time it was almost entirely high end private.

There are few differences between the two periods. While access to money was hard back then too the interest rates are still ideal for long term borrowing. This time there is more renovation and restoration but there is also four times the number of architects chasing the work. Today I found out one of my contractors was just informed by a client that they would have to delay a major project till the economic cycle improves. Last week another architect told me of a major renovation halted due to shortfalls in membership.

Times may be getting tough in the golf design business.

Now before you begin the great GCA Telethon to Benefit Starving Architects, I should tell you that most years I begin with the same answer. In the renovation business work inevitably comes as the season changes to spring. But what today's question got me thinking - what if it doesn't?

Im curious to hear other people's opinions on this.

appologies to Joel Stewart - but the politics on that thread drove me away
« Last Edit: October 22, 2008, 06:24:17 PM by Ian Andrew »

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +1/-1
Re: Looking Ahead at Next Year
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2008, 09:06:30 PM »
Ian:

There is no question that new work will be much slower for the next 2-3 years ... the only question is whether that will be true EVERYWHERE in the world or if there will be some exceptions.

As a result, lots of firms will turn to consulting work out of desperation.  But, it baffles me why they believe this will work.  If clubs are having trouble retaining members, they certainly aren't going to assess the membership to fund renovation projects, and they are unlikely to be able to borrow the money from the local bank.  So I don't know why anyone thinks the renovation business will be booming.

Ronald Montesano

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Looking Ahead at Next Year
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2008, 09:48:58 PM »
How do I keep missing you at Cherry Hill?  We were there on Monday, played Crag Burn on Tuesday and Orchard Park on Wednesday.  Hopefully you're at CH on Thursday, our last practice of the year.  Can I tell you how excellent the new up-fairway bunker on number 7 is?  Instead of a shooting gallery, you're bringing strategy in for the less than perfect drive.
Coming in August 2023
~Manakiki
~OSU Scarlet
~OSU Grey
~NCR South
~Springfield
~Columbus
~Lake Forest (OH)
~Sleepy Hollow (OH)

Mike_Young

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Looking Ahead at Next Year
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2008, 10:14:54 PM »
Ian:

There is no question that new work will be much slower for the next 2-3 years ... the only question is whether that will be true EVERYWHERE in the world or if there will be some exceptions.

As a result, lots of firms will turn to consulting work out of desperation.  But, it baffles me why they believe this will work.  If clubs are having trouble retaining members, they certainly aren't going to assess the membership to fund renovation projects, and they are unlikely to be able to borrow the money from the local bank.  So I don't know why anyone thinks the renovation business will be booming.
TD,
My home course just voted in a 6 million assessment on a monday nite when the market dropped like 800 points....it passed by 16 votes out of a total of 590 votes.....and it is not being done out of reserves.....plus the GM that had been behind all of it with a couple of frat boy members resigned to go to another highend seasonal club.....it has split our membership and they are doing their best to begin before a petition or something stops it.....so you never know how some of these places will react.....
"just standing on a corner in Winslow Arizona"

Adam Russell

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Looking Ahead at Next Year
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2008, 10:37:34 PM »
Guys, look on the bright side... at least you won't be graduating college trying to break into the business in May ???

Mr. Young - Nice Oasis quote. BTW, Lane Creek looked in better condition than Reynolds when I played recently. No joke.
The only way that I could figure they could improve upon Coca-Cola, one of life's most delightful elixirs, which studies prove will heal the sick and occasionally raise the dead, is to put rum or bourbon in it. -Lewis Grizzard

TX Golf

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Looking Ahead at Next Year
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2008, 10:40:33 PM »
Adam,

Don't speak so generally.... I graduate in May and thankfully I am not looking at going into the golf business. Unfortunately my dream of investment banking isn't looking to great either :-[ :-\

Are you in the same position ??? ???

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +1/-1
Re: Looking Ahead at Next Year
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2008, 05:27:44 AM »
Mike:

Sorry to hear about your assessment ... but I don't think there will be many more like it this time next year.

I hope I'm wrong, but that's why I am writing from South Korea.

Adrian_Stiff

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Looking Ahead at Next Year
« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2008, 08:38:19 AM »
Tom- I think South East Asia is probably the only place that will get some sort of immunity from the western meltdown and I am not totally convinced that will not suffer a bit too. Eastern Europe is now totally ****ed, I cant see any new UK projects for a while and I dont see anyone buying overseas/property homes in Spain or Portugal so thats a NO area too... I assume the USA will be the same...... UK courses are more likely to scale down things and have lower budgets for the next year(s) than spend on renovation or improvements. People will still play golf but they will want/ be forced to play cheaper...lots of architects may have to go back to grilling hamburgers.
A combination of whats good for golf and good for turf.
The Players Club, Cumberwell Park, The Kendleshire, Oake Manor, Dainton Park, Forest Hills, Erlestoke, St Cleres.
www.theplayersgolfclub.com

Adam Russell

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Looking Ahead at Next Year
« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2008, 10:25:34 AM »
Robert,
 I graduate from the University of Georgia in May and I'm trying to get into the golf business, therefore, guys with established names > me and in a way better situation. That's all I meant.
The only way that I could figure they could improve upon Coca-Cola, one of life's most delightful elixirs, which studies prove will heal the sick and occasionally raise the dead, is to put rum or bourbon in it. -Lewis Grizzard

Mike Hendren

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Looking Ahead at Next Year
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2008, 10:42:56 AM »
TD,
My home course just voted in a 6 million assessment on a monday nite when the market dropped like 800 points....it passed by 16 votes out of a total of 590 votes.....and it is not being done out of reserves.....plus the GM that had been behind all of it with a couple of frat boy members resigned to go to another highend seasonal club.....it has split our membership and they are doing their best to begin before a petition or something stops it.....so you never know how some of these places will react.....

Mike, please tell me that this will not impact the availability of disposaable razors in the men's locker room.  What a bunch of weenies.

Bogey
Two Corinthians walk into a bar ....

Tags:
Tags:

An Error Has Occurred!

Call to undefined function theme_linktree()
Back