News:

This discussion group is best enjoyed using Google Chrome, Firefox or Safari.


Doug Siebert

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #25 on: July 25, 2015, 03:31:56 AM »
thank you for posting, found this very interesting that he inflates the value of his own courses, kind of like he deflates his actual handicap down to 3 from what it should be, which is about 8 or 9.


Never underestimate the value of knowing a rich guy with a vanity handicap!
My hovercraft is full of eels.

Thomas Dai

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #26 on: July 25, 2015, 04:16:56 AM »
Donald Trump could make a wonderful bad guy in a James Bond film!
atb

Jason Way

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #27 on: July 25, 2015, 09:52:04 AM »
Thanks for sharing this David.  What is more intriguing to me about Trump's (or any large golf owner/operator's) portfolio is the profitability.  Given his stated intention to be in the golf business for the long term in a big way, I would love to see how the bottom line looks, and how he intends to make that work in the long haul given the magnitude of the investment in improvements he is making, which I assume he is financing.


Anyone here have experience with the basic P&L financials of a golf course business, and whether Trump's revenue numbers are likely to result in healthy profitability?
"Golf is a science, the study of a lifetime, in which you can exhaust yourself but never your subject." - David Forgan

John Kirk

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #28 on: July 25, 2015, 11:08:23 AM »
I liked learning that 1.0 - 1.5 times revenue is a general guideline for golf course valuation.

I would have thought earnings were a more common metric, similar to trading shares of stock on an exchange, where 10-20 times earnings is typical.  Obviously, the inherent value of the land, and its suitability for alternate residential or commercial use, would be important.  Another number I've heard in the past is "the second owner typically buys a course out of bankruptcy for about 20% of the project cost."

Let's assume we build a popular new course that commands an average price of $60 per round.  40,000 rounds makes $2.4 million in revenue, plus I'll guess $1.6 million in food, beverage, equipment plus clothing sales.  According to the article, this course is worth $4-6 million.  I'd suggest you have to build this facility in an austere fashion, with simple, functional structures, in order to make the numbers work.  Rustic Canyon probably cost about this much, though they only charge $30-50 per round of golf.

Another reason to point the finger at the bloated golf construction industry of the past thirty years.  A wildly inefficient industry that builds monuments of human excess.  Our golf community is full of free market zealots shouting from the rooftops about the inefficiencies of central government administration, and yet, the entire golf construction business proliferated, and saturated its market, by building unsustainable, financially uncompetitive facilities.  Efficient modern builders like Doak, Hanse, Coore/Crenshaw and others, are left to compete with existing monstrosities whose value is already been trimmed by one or more bankruptcies.

String along your creditors, and rack up as much debt as possible.  This course declared $9 million in assets and $78 million in debts at bankruptcy:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-golf-club-in-puerto-rico-files-for-bankruptcy-1436808696

Earlier this year, Briar's Creek in South Carolina listed $1.56 million in assets and $37 million in liabilities.

http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20150210/PC05/150219965

The golf business is pathetic - inefficient, overbuilt, and opportunistic.  Free market competition my ass.  One of the worst manifestations of capitalism and its use of bankruptcy law.  From now on, most golf clubs will be valued for what the land is worth.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2015, 11:43:54 AM by John Kirk »

Paul Gray

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #29 on: July 25, 2015, 04:42:11 PM »
John Kirk,

What an excellent, intelligent, insightful post.

You are today's winner of the internet!   :)
In the places where golf cuts through pretension and elitism, it thrives and will continue to thrive because the simple virtues of the game and its attendant culture are allowed to be most apparent. - Tim Gavrich

Rob Marshall

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #30 on: July 25, 2015, 04:54:54 PM »
Trump doesn't own the course that is bankrupt in PR. I read he just licenses the name to them.
If life gives you limes, make margaritas.” Jimmy Buffett

cary lichtenstein

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #31 on: July 25, 2015, 05:04:39 PM »
John:


My best guess is that Trump paid $1 for Trump Jupiter. The Ritz could not stop losings millions per year, he assumed no liability. I think the Nicklaus Group sold their 50% share to the Ritz for $1 dollar as well to get rid of their liability.
Live Jupiter, Fl, was  4 handicap, played top 100 US, top 75 World. Great memories, no longer play, 4 back surgeries. I don't miss a lot of things about golf, life is simpler with out it. I miss my 60 degree wedge shots, don't miss nasty weather, icing, back spasms. Last course I played was Augusta

Patrick_Mucci

Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #32 on: July 25, 2015, 08:54:38 PM »

I liked learning that 1.0 - 1.5 times revenue is a general guideline for golf course valuation.
 
John,
 
So when Mike Pascucci bought the land at Sebonack for $ 46,000,000, and spent millions more on the facilities, he should only value his asset at 1X or 1.5X his annual revenue ?

I would have thought earnings were a more common metric, similar to trading shares of stock on an exchange, where 10-20 times earnings is typical. Obviously, the inherent value of the land, and its suitability for alternate residential or commercial use, would be important.  Another number I've heard in the past is "the second owner typically buys a course out of bankruptcy for about 20% of the project cost."
 
Can you provide some concrete examples ?

Let's assume we build a popular new course that commands an average price of $60 per round.  40,000 rounds makes $2.4 million in revenue, plus I'll guess $1.6 million in food, beverage, equipment plus clothing sales. 
 
You're forgetting the more important factors.
What did the land cost and what did it cost to build the course and all of it's facilities, and what's the operating cost.
 
Isn't that the starting point for determining green fees ?
The planned recapturing of the original investment
 
40,000 rounds ?
 
It must be one hell of a golf course.
 
How many new public courses do 40,000 rounds a year ?
Could you cite five (5) ?
 
According to the article, this course is worth $4-6 million.  I'd suggest you have to build this facility in an austere fashion, with simple, functional structures, in order to make the numbers work.
 
When you compromise quality, you make the club/course less attractive.
Can you cite some new courses with "austere" facilities ? 
 
Rustic Canyon probably cost about this much, though they only charge $30-50 per round of golf.
 
What was the cost to acquire the land at Rustic Canyon ?

Another reason to point the finger at the bloated golf construction industry of the past thirty years.  A wildly inefficient industry that builds monuments of human excess. 
 
Would you list 5 to 10 member or public golf courses that were built to excess in the last 30 years.
 
Shadow Creek and the other Casino courses don't count.
 
Our golf community is full of free market zealots shouting from the rooftops about the inefficiencies of central government administration, and yet, the entire golf construction business proliferated, and saturated its market, by building unsustainable, financially uncompetitive facilities.
 
Would you cite 10 courses that were built that were unsustainable, courses that were financially uncompetitive facilities ?
 
Efficient modern builders like Doak, Hanse, Coore/Crenshaw and others, are left to compete with existing monstrosities whose value is already been trimmed by one or more bankruptcies.

Would you cite, specifically, those existing monstrosities whose value has already been trimmed by one or more bankruptcies ?
String along your creditors, and rack up as much debt as possible.  This course declared $9 million in assets and $78 million in debts at bankruptcy:
 
That's not true and it's just another political attempt on your part to distort the truth.
 
The course did not have $ 9 million in assets and $ 78 million in debt.
This was a real estate development with a golf course, not a free standing golf course.
 
If you're going to post your political views, get the facts right before doing so.


http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-golf-club-in-puerto-rico-files-for-bankruptcy-1436808696

Trump neither built nor managed this course.
Earlier this year, Briar's Creek in South Carolina listed $1.56 million in assets and $37 million in liabilities.

http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20150210/PC05/150219965
 
Not surprisingly, you chose to misrepresent the facts again.
 
Briar's Creek was a real estate development with a golf course.
Surely you understand the difference between a free standing golf course and a golf course that's part of a large scale real estate development.


The golf business is pathetic - inefficient, overbuilt, and opportunistic.
 
Please stop with your political diatribes.
 
The golf business took a hit, like almost everything else, when the economy tanked in 2008. 
 
Free market competition my ass.
 
More political nonsense from you.
Perhaps you'd favor the government providing memberships for everyone at the course of their choice.
 
One of the worst manifestations of capitalism and its use of bankruptcy law.
 
That's your socialist opinion.
 
And, you fail to distinquish between Chapter 11 Bankruptcies, which allow workers to keep their jobs and Chapter 7 Bankruptcies.
 
From now on, most golf clubs will be valued for what the land is worth.
 
So, what are Bandon and Streamsong worth ?
 
Just the value of the land ?
 
What do you suppose the land at Streamsong is worth to a willing buyer ?


Garland Bayley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #33 on: July 26, 2015, 02:22:23 AM »
thank you for posting, found this very interesting that he inflates the value of his own courses, kind of like he deflates his actual handicap down to 3 from what it should be, which is about 8 or 9.


Never underestimate the value of knowing a rich guy with a vanity handicap!


So that's why Pat knows Trump! ;D

"I enjoy a course where the challenges are contained WITHIN it, and recovery is part of the game  not a course where the challenge is to stay ON it." Jeff Warne

John Kirk

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #34 on: July 26, 2015, 02:57:47 PM »
Hi Patrick,

I'm going to respond in detail at least once, but I'm not going to do your entire homework list of assignments.  Before I address specific objections to my original post, let me summarize my issues and personal grievances with the golf club construction business.

It was not my primary intent to single out any one golf club owner here, though Donald Trump's name was used, in the opening post and as an example of course bankruptcy.

Here's what happened.  I went looking for golf course bankruptcies to use as an example.  I Googled "golf course bankruptcy", and the first page of results were all related to the recent Coco Beach G & CC, aka Trump Puerto Rico, chapter 11 filing.  I did not want the focus of my discontent to be about Mr. Trump, but I was shocked by the amount of liabilities, which are over eight times the stated assets.  So I included that example, but went looking for another high profile example and found Briar's Creek, a fine facility which has appeared in Golfweek's Next 100 Modern list.

Briar's Creek listed $1.56 million in assets and $37 million in liabilities, though they are careful to point out that the golf course is not included in the assets.  A Houston executive led a group to buy the course and vacant home sites for $7.4 million, while assuming a $5.8 million liability in secured debt obligations.

My questions are these.  Even if we value the assets at $10 million (add in golf facilities), how do you accumulate $37 million in liabilities?  What type of person continues to solicit funds and investors in the project, knowing the liabilities will be unrecoverable?  The $26 million in refundable initiation fees and loans will be paid back at a fraction of their value.  I would be personally incapable of selling someone a golf membership, knowing there was no chance the redemption offer I was selling would never be honored.

The $26 million in question likely paid for the vast majority of the development and early operation of the club.  They paid the lion's share of the salaries of the workers who built and operate the club.  It appears that this limited liability corporation (LLC) truly has limited liability.  The secured creditors still get paid, and the penalty for bankruptcy looks to be on the order of a $1 million loss, rather than $10-30 million.  And that doesn't count the salaries the principals and their employees earned while executing a business plan.  In my opinion, the penalty for building an unsustainable entity was not severe enough.

Rather than having politics as my primary motivation, I'd put my personal grudges as more relevant.  In the last twenty years, I have been a member of five newly developed golf clubs, and invested a substantial amount to their development, twice as a founding or charter member.  I will receive no redemptions, though I was promised an amount that approximately equaled my investment.  I am still well received at each of these clubs, and was able to enjoy the phenomenal golf experiences of playing courses with modern, pristine playing surfaces.  But to an extent, I was a whale, willing to invest large sums of money for promises that couldn't be honored.

I'm also mad because there's been a renaissance in golf course design, and my favorite designers have few opportunities to develop their superior product at home.  New popular designers build wider golf courses with a less penalizing philosophy of the game's challenges.  The name of the game now is wide and walkable, with strategic undulation, fewer lost balls and no artificial water hazards, and an eye towards lower construction and maintenance costs.  But over the last thirty years, golf development used these financial engineering tools (debt and bankruptcy) and salesmanship to saturate the market with unwalkable golf courses and unsustainable business plans.  And now those courses/clubs have been reassessed, and are in direct competition with a better brand of golf.  That pisses me off.

Patrick, it comes as no surprise that you would champion the efforts of someone like Donald Trump, being from New Jersey and the land of financial engineering.  I champion the efforts of the workers who build and maintain the courses, and offer hospitality to their clientele.  I perceive the salesmanship and financial engineering used for golf club development, as often dependent upon members/investors who do not get repaid.  I choose to admire people who create tangible products and services that I understand, and I have disdain for financial engineers who load the balance sheet with debt while enriching themselves.  The need to financially manipulate and engineer a deal is only necessary when the idea does not stand on its own merits, and sells itself.

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +1/-1
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #35 on: July 26, 2015, 06:17:19 PM »
Most of the difference between Mr. Trump's estimation of his net worth and Forbes's estimate is probably related to the corporate line item known as "Goodwill". 


As for John Kirk's run-down of bankruptcy in the golf business, I applaud his comments, but they're not 100% accurate, as lots of the projects done by myself and other "favored architects" also went through great financial hardship after 2008.  I have been getting the bankruptcy court reports from our stopped project at Wicked Pony in Bend, Oregon, for years and years as they tried to sort through everything, knowing that I would never see a dime of the $250,000 they owed my company, since that put me somewhere around 15th on the list of creditors.  It was finally settled this spring ... the bank got the property, and everybody else got bupkus, including a few investors and contractors who were out $2 million to $4 million each.  It's hard to tell from the papers, but I don't think my client had as much in it, even though I'm sure it was a major blow to his personal finances ... I have never heard from the fellow since the day the thing went down.


I'm out west this week in places like Park City, Utah and Jackson, Wyoming, and you can bet your boots there would be no golf courses here at all if they did business any other way, there is no way to make the numbers work in such a short season.  Yet the golf courses that are built spend money like it's water ... I have seen no sign of anyplace that tried to minimize or control the costs of construction, although I have seen a few that are bank-owned.


As John hints, the m.o. of developers is to utilize Other People's Money as much as they can ... and to inflate the numbers on everything so everyone will assume they have more at risk personally than they really do.  Mr. Trump just does this on a far grander scale than most.  I don't know whether to curse them all or applaud them ... without them the golf business would be almost non-existent.


We are often in the situation of hoping that a project will get built, but not wanting to say anything about the true prospects of investors in the deal.

John Kirk

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #36 on: July 26, 2015, 10:49:05 PM »
Tom,

Thanks for augmenting (and correcting) some of my thoughts.  I tried to modify all non-absolute statements with "often", "probably", "usually", and similar qualifiers.

Financiers not only conceive and organize the development of most new courses; they also comprise a significant percentage of membership at many high-end golf clubs.  Some GCA members, including friends, may find my comments offensive.

It seems sensible to suggest new golf course developments should be more austere in nature, though many new top courses may in fact be built as personal playgrounds for a growing super-wealthy class of clients (and their friends).

The two examples I presented make me wonder what level of debt other high-end developments have.

It would be nice if a different type of club structure was used, one where early investments were rewarded with a percentage ownership.  That has its own set of problems, such as when courses incur operating losses.  I was once approached about purchasing a small percentage ownership in a club post-foreclosure, and I didn't want to participate, thinking I could be on the hook for 1-2% of a $500k - $1M yearly operating loss ($5-20k per year) until the club's fortunes improved (which they eventually did).  Could have been as expensive as medical insurance.

My main problem with most golf facilities is the size and grandeur of the clubhouse, and the amenities to make it seem special.  I just want a golf course and a small place to sit afterwards and have a soda pop.  Pasatiempo is a great example of a club with a properly sized clubhouse.  That place rules.  Five to ten thousand square feet is plenty.


Niall C

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #37 on: July 27, 2015, 04:59:37 AM »
John,


Developers using other peoples money to develop isn't unique to golf development, it's pretty standard in all types of property development. It is based on the lenders being satisfied that the completed development will be worth more than it cost to construct. It's up to the investor/lender to convine themselves that is the case. As an investor/lender in the golf developments you refer to, what due diligence did you do or did you simply take the developers word that the development would turn a profit ? That said, if the figures are as skewed as you suggest in some of those developments then there perhaps might be a case to say their was no reasonable way the development could have worked financially and therefore the developer was knowingly "selling a pup" and presumably could be sued on that basis.


With regards to the Donald, as Tom suggests perhaps the difference in relative values is "goodwill" based on the Trump brand. I do wonder however what the brand will be worth in the event of the Donalds demise and to what extent creditors will be willing to back it. In saying that, I of course wish no ill to Mr Trump.


Niall 
 

Jim Hoak

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #38 on: July 28, 2015, 11:15:33 AM »
Bloomberg reports this morning that the Trump courses are worth $50-150 million.

John Kirk

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #39 on: July 28, 2015, 05:59:08 PM »
John,


Developers using other peoples money to develop isn't unique to golf development, it's pretty standard in all types of property development. It is based on the lenders being satisfied that the completed development will be worth more than it cost to construct. It's up to the investor/lender to convince themselves that is the case. As an investor/lender in the golf developments you refer to, what due diligence did you do or did you simply take the developers word that the development would turn a profit ? That said, if the figures are as skewed as you suggest in some of those developments then there perhaps might be a case to say their was no reasonable way the development could have worked financially and therefore the developer was knowingly "selling a pup" and presumably could be sued on that basis.

...I of course wish no ill to Mr Trump.


Hi Niall,

Thanks for your comments.  Sure, I could've done better due diligence, but each club has its own story, and since I am a past/present member, I am reluctant to discuss specifics.  I joined two clubs before they were built; I liked the management/owners and the business plans.  Two of the clubs have always been solvent, but when I resigned, I walked away from my membership, rather than try to resell the membership for an indefinite period of time while continuing to pay dues.  The fifth club is also solvent, but will run into difficulty when promissory notes will become due in 6-7 years.

My opinion is that golf club financials can be opaque; I know a few people plenty smart and wary enough to execute intelligent due diligence, yet walked away from bankruptcy with nothing.

It is my opinion, based on experience, that golf courses are almost never worth more than they cost to build.  Only the great ones are sufficiently supported for the long haul.  The article referenced in this thread's opening post has the following quote:

"Golf courses are like new cars," said Larry Hirsh, a founder of the Society of Golf Appraisers and president of Golf Property Analysts in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania. "You drive them off the lot and they're worth half as much."





Paul Gray

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #40 on: July 28, 2015, 06:15:16 PM »
I can't be the only Brit enjoying another reworking of the 'American golf eats itself' thread.  ;D
In the places where golf cuts through pretension and elitism, it thrives and will continue to thrive because the simple virtues of the game and its attendant culture are allowed to be most apparent. - Tim Gavrich

Niall C

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #41 on: July 29, 2015, 12:22:52 PM »
John


I suppose one way of looking at it is that you got your return on your investment out of the enjoyment you got from being a member. Of course that depends on how much you paid, and I'm not asking, and your attitude to money. Joining a golf club isn't really an investment in the conventional sense.


I'd be interested to know though, is their much of a market in the US for UK style clubs with emphasis on the golf and limited and fairly modest clubhouse/food & beverage offerings ?


Niall

Jim_Coleman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #42 on: July 29, 2015, 01:53:44 PM »
   If you go to Trump's GHIN record, you'll see his last 20 posted scores date back to 2009.  Something tells me he doesn't post too often.  If anyone can get him in a money game at a 3.0, I'd like your chances  -  of winning, not of being paid.

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #43 on: July 29, 2015, 01:59:28 PM »
Since this is nothing more than a gossip thread, I was wondering...Has anyone played golf with the lion hunting Minnesota dentist?  I tried to find his GHIN and had no luck.  Walter Palmer.

Paul OConnor

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #44 on: July 29, 2015, 02:02:18 PM »
I've played golf in Minnesota with a dentist, but not that one.   

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #45 on: July 29, 2015, 02:36:56 PM »
Golf has needed a win and may have got one in Walter Palmer.  He is quoted as saying “I don’t have a golf game” in response to why he enjoys killing animals.
http://www.startribune.com/zimbabwe-2-to-appear-in-court-for-killing-cecil-the-lion/318828251/

Paul Gray

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #46 on: July 29, 2015, 07:59:13 PM »
Sadly John, I think what's implied really there is that arseholes like him would generally be golfers.
In the places where golf cuts through pretension and elitism, it thrives and will continue to thrive because the simple virtues of the game and its attendant culture are allowed to be most apparent. - Tim Gavrich

Carl Johnson

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #47 on: July 29, 2015, 08:12:21 PM »
John
. . .

I'd be interested to know though, is their much of a market in the US for UK style clubs with emphasis on the golf and limited and fairly modest clubhouse/food & beverage offerings ?

Niall

Niall, I belong to one such club in North Carolina, USA.  However, based on my personal experience, anecdotal only (no "scientific" study), I would say that we are very much in the minority and that therefore there isn't "much of a market" right now for this type of club in the USA.  However, there is a market, a niche market.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2015, 08:18:25 PM by Carl Johnson »

Bill_McBride

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #48 on: July 29, 2015, 08:24:33 PM »
John
. . .

I'd be interested to know though, is their much of a market in the US for UK style clubs with emphasis on the golf and limited and fairly modest clubhouse/food & beverage offerings ?

Niall

Niall, I belong to one such club in North Carolina, USA.  However, based on my personal experience, anecdotal only (no "scientific" study), I would say that we are very much in the minority and that therefore there isn't "much of a market" right now for this type of club in the USA.  However, there is a market, a niche market.


Carl, not sure what your annual costs are at CGC, but there are wonderful courses in the UK where the annual cost for green fees is under £1,000.  I truly wish that's what my base cost was, pre carts, locker, range and handicap, etc.  it's almost impossible to compare the two systems. 

Wayne_Kozun

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "Trump's $550M golf empire may be in the weeds"
« Reply #49 on: July 30, 2015, 01:57:47 PM »
I can't be the only Brit enjoying another reworking of the 'American golf eats itself' thread.  ;D
Or American golf eats British golf as Trump builds and acquires courses in GB&I.

Tags:
Tags:

An Error Has Occurred!

Call to undefined function theme_linktree()
Back